MyOOPS開放式課程
請加入會員以使用更多個人化功能
來自全球頂尖大學的開放式課程,現在由世界各國的數千名義工志工為您翻譯成中文。請免費享用!
課程來源:TED
     
Larry Burns談汽車的未來
Larry Burns on the future of cars
講者:Larry Burns
2005年2月演講,2008年12月在TED上線

譯者:洪曉慧
編輯:劉契良
簡繁轉換:陳盈
後製:劉契良
字幕影片後製:謝旻均


關於這個演講
通用汽車副總裁Larry Burns預告了酷炫的下一代汽車設計:時尚、客製化(且配備電腦強化)的氫動力零污染汽車-並能在其處於閒置狀態時,將能量抽回電力網路中。

 
關於Larry Burns
Larry Burns是通用汽車研發部副總裁。他的工作為何?就是尋找一種提供汽車動力來源的新方法。
.
 
為什麼要聽他演講:
Larry Burns有一項任務:使用零污染的氫燃料電池重新改造汽車。身為通用汽車公司研發部與策略規劃副總裁,他是美國冀望帶領汽車工業進入下一輪典型的人選之一。
Burns堅持提倡使用氫氣能源和其他先進汽車動力及材料技術。他的想法是,業界能使目前的汽車持續達成小幅的能源改進,或者可以向前跨出一大步,建立一種全新的車款。

「通用汽車不能使其業務成長受限於能源、安全和環境問題。我們需要使內燃機有所變革,因為這個技術基本上120年未曾改變。…以電動馬達和燃料電池為基礎,做為全新的汽車DNA,我們就有機會達成這個目標。」
Larry Burns於Wired.com網站專訪
 
 
Larry Burns的網上資料
 
 
 


[TED科技‧娛樂‧設計]
已有中譯字幕的TED影片目錄(繁體)(簡體)。請注意繁簡目錄是不一樣的。

人們喜愛他們的車,車子讓我們何時都能去我們想到之處,它們是一種娛樂形式,一種藝術形式,一種所有權的驕傲,很多歌曲中寫到汽車,王子寫了一首很棒的歌,「小小紅色雪佛蘭」,他不是寫「小小紅色筆電」或「小小紅色Dirt Devil吸塵器」,他歌中寫的是一輛車,其中我最愛的一句,一直是「與你的男人在雪佛蘭車上做愛」,因為那正是我大學時所擁有的車,事實是,在我們世界各地進行的市場研究中,人們普遍的願望幾乎都是擁有一輛汽車,當今世界上有七億五千萬人擁有自己的汽車,你會說,天啊,這還真多,但你知道嗎?這只佔人口的百分之十二,我們應該要問的問題是世界能承受這樣的汽車數量嗎?
 
 
再看看未來10年、15年至20年的預估成長量,看來全世界停車場裡的車輛將成長到11億,現在,如果將它們一輛接一輛環繞地球,將可環繞地球125圈,在過去的100年中,我們的汽車技術已經有很大進展,汽車明顯的更潔淨、更安全且更高效,基本上也比100多年前更令人負擔得起,但事實是,汽車的基礎DNA一直保持相同,如果今日我們要重新發明汽車,而不是在100年前,從目前我們已知與產品及現存技術這些相關問題來看,我們將怎麼做?我們想要真正能令人負擔得起的東西,燃料電池看起來很棒,僅佔運轉部件的十分之一,且以燃料電池作為推進系統內燃機,且它只會排放水。
 
 
我們想利用摩爾定律來做電子控制和軟體,我們當然希望我們的車與其整合在一起,因此,我們開始著手改造電化學引擎的燃料電池,以氫作為能源載體,第一款稱作Autonomy,Autonomy確定了我們想要前進方向的願景,我們體現了所有燃料電池推進系統的主要組成部分,然後我們以Hy-wire來驅動Autonomy,去年我們在這個會議中展示過Hy-wire,Hy-wire是世界上第一款能驅動車輛的燃料電池,我們接下來更發展了Sequel燃料電池車,Sequel的確是一部真正的汽車,因此,我們來放一段影片。
 
 
我敢肯定你們心中真正的關鍵問題是,氫將從何而來?其次是,這種車何時可上路?因此,讓我先談氫氣問題,氫的美妙之處在於它可由許多不同來源獲得,它可以來自化石燃料,可以來自於任何發電方式,包括再生能源,它可來自生物燃料,這非常令人振奮,我們的願景是讓每個地方社區發揮其自然力量,以創造氫氣,現今世界上氫的產量很豐富,它產自從汽油中抽離硫的過程,我覺得這有點諷刺,它也可產自肥料工業,產自化學製造工業。
 
 
製造氫的理由正是因為有很好的商業理由來使用它,這告訴我們,我們知道如何製造它,我們知道如何兼顧成本效益來創造它,我們也知道如何安全地加以處理,我們做了分析,你將可在城市何處找到加氣站?以美國最大的100個城市而言,我們將加氣站設置於任何時候你離它都不超過兩英里的地點,我們在高速公路上每25英里設置一個,換算起來約有12,000個站點,若每個成本為100萬美元,總共約需花費120億美元,這是一大筆錢,但如果你是設置阿拉斯加大油管,這只需阿拉斯加大油管耗資的一半,但真正令人振奮的,願景是,在家中加油的夢想成真,就像是將你的筆電或手機充電一樣。
 
 
因此,我們對氫氣的未來願景感到非常振奮,我們認為這不是是否可行,而是何時可行的問題,我們已為自己立下了目標,我們正在這目標上獲得巨大的進展,就是有一個推進系統以氫和燃料電池為基礎,並經設計與驗證,這可與內燃機引擎硬碰硬的較量,我們是指淘汰內燃機引擎,而且要在可接受的成本內,增加其技術容量、性能和耐用性,所以,我們希望在2010年就能使其上路,我們在開發過程中,尚未看到任何不可行的狀況。
 
 
事實上,我們認為未來將會是事件驅動的系統,因此,既然我們不能預測未來,我們就要花費很多時間去創造未來,我非常,非常感興趣的是,事實上我們的汽車和卡車有百分之九十的時間是閒置的,它們停著,停在我們周遭,他們通常停在離車主人100英尺的範圍內,現在,如果你將汽車的發電能力與美國的電力網路做比較,結果是百分之四的汽車,百分之四汽車產生的電力相當於美國的電力網路,這是一個巨大的發電能力,移動的發電能力。
 
 
氫和燃料電池給我們這個機會,確實能在汽車和卡車停下時,將其閒置電力貢獻到電力網路中,我們以前談論過群網路,也談到終極群,關於使所有處理器和汽車的閒置電力做為全球網路計算能力的一部份,我們發現,這個假設相當令人振奮,汽車變成一種裝置而不是一種商品意識,除了是一種裝置、移動電源資訊、計算與通信的移動平台,也是一種運輸形式,而關鍵是使人們能買得起、令人感到興奮,並找到一個能讓這件事進行下去,又能賺錢的方法。
 
 
再次強調,要達到這個目標確實還需邁進一大步,很多人說當你得處理這麼重大的問題時,晚上怎麼睡得著?我告訴他們,我睡得就像嬰兒一樣,每兩小時醒來哭一下,事實上,這次會議的主題是已找到一個能成功完成這件事的真正關鍵所在,那就是連繫和合作,非常感謝。
 
(掌聲)
 
Chris Anderson:Larry,等等,等一下,Larry,等一下,一下就好,我有太多問題想問你,但我只問一個問題,你知道,我的想法或許不正確,但我的感覺正如大多數人的想法,今天通用汽車在大眾眼中,對環境問題的重視,不如您一些日本的競爭對手,甚至也不如福特汽車,你們對這個是認真的嗎?而不只是,你知道,當消費者希望如此、當監督機構迫使我們這樣做,我們才做?你們真的想要嘗試,並取得龍頭地位嗎?
 
 
Larry Burns:是的,我們絕對是認真的,我們已投資超過 10億美元,所以我希望人們會認為我們是認真的,當我們已花了那麼多的錢,其次,這是一個重大的商業計畫,老實說,我們已著手於此是因為業務有成長的機會,我們無法擴展我們的業務,除非我們解決這些問題,汽車工業的成長將被永續發展問題所限制,如果我們不能解決問題的話,有個簡單的策略原則說「先下手為強」如果我們能看到,這未來的可能性,其他人也能,我們希望成為第一個創建它的人,Chris。
 

以下為系統擷取之英文原文

About this talk

General Motors veep Larry Burns previews cool next-gen car design: sleek, customizable (and computer-enhanced) vehicles that run clean on hydrogen -- and pump energy back into the electrical grid when they're idle.

About Larry Burns

Larry Burns is the vice president of R&D for GM. His job? Find a new way to power cars. Full bio and more links

Transcript

People love their automobiles. They allow us to go where we want to when we want to. They're a form of entertainment, they're a form of art, a pride of ownership. Songs are written about cars. Prince wrote a great song: "Little Red Corvette." He didn't write "Little Red Laptop Computer" or "Little Red Dirt Devil." He wrote about a car. And one of my favorites has always been, "Make love to your man in a Chevy van," because that was my vehicle when I was in college.

The fact is, when we do our market research around the world, we see that there's nearly a universal aspiration on the part of people to own an automobile. And 750 million people in the world today own a car. And you say, boy, that's a lot. But you know what? That's just 12 percent of the population. We really have to ask the question: Can the world sustain that number of automobiles? And if you look at projections over the next 10 to 15 to 20 years, it looks like the world car park could grow to on the order of 1.1 billion vehicles. Now, if you parked those end to end and wrapped them around the Earth, that would stretch around the Earth 125 times.

Now, we've made great progress with automobile technology over the last 100 years. Cars are dramatically cleaner, dramatically safer, more efficient and radically more affordable than they were 100 years ago. But the fact remains: the fundamental DNA of the automobile has stayed pretty much the same. If we are going to reinvent the automobile today, rather than 100 years ago, knowing what we know about the issues associated with our product and about the technologies that exist today, what would we do?

We wanted something that was really affordable. The fuel cell looked great: one-tenth as many moving parts and a fuel-cell propulsion system as an internal combustion engine -- and it emits just water. And we wanted to take advantage of Moore's Law with electronic controls and software, and we absolutely wanted our car to be connected. So we embarked upon the reinvention around an electrochemical engine the fuel cell, hydrogen as the energy carrier. First was Autonomy. Autonomy really set the vision for where we wanted to head. We embodied all of the key components of a fuel cell propulsion system. We then had Autonomy drivable with Hy-Wire, and we showed Hy-Wire here at this conference last year. Hy-Wire is the world's first drivable fuel cell, and we have followed up that now with Sequel. And Sequel truly is a real car. So if we would run the video --

But the real key question I'm sure that's on your mind: where's the hydrogen going to come from? And secondly, when are these kinds of cars going to be available? So let me talk about hydrogen first. The beauty of hydrogen is it can come from so many different sources: it can come from fossil fuels, it can come from any way that you can create electricity, including renewables. And it can come from biofuels. And that's quite exciting. The vision here is to have each local community play to its natural strength in creating the hydrogen. A lot of hydrogen's produced today in the world. It's produced to get sulphur out of gasoline -- which I find is somewhat ironic. It's produced in the fertilizer industry; it's produced in the chemical manufacturing industry. That hydrogen's being made because there's a good business reason for its use. But it tells us that we know how to create it, we know how to create it cost effectively, we know how to handle it safely.

We did an analysis where you would have a station in each city with each of the 100 largest cities in the United States, and located the stations so you'd be no more than two miles from a station at any time. We put one every 25 miles on the freeway, and it turns out that translates into about 12,000 stations. And at a million dollars each, that would be about 12 billion dollars. Now that's a lot of money. But if you built the Alaskan pipeline today, that's half of what the Alaskan pipeline would cost. But the real exciting vision that we see truly is home refuelling, much like recharging your laptop or recharging your cellphone. So we're pretty excited about the future of hydrogen. We think it's a question of not whether, but a question of when.

What we've targeted for ourselves -- and we're making great progress for this goal -- is to have a propulsion system based on hydrogen and fuel cells, designed and validated, that can go head-to-head with the internal combustion engine -- we're talking about obsoleting the internal combustion engine -- and do it in terms of its affordability, add skill volumes, its performance and its durability. So that's what we're driving to for 2010. We haven't seen anything yet in our development work that says that isn't possible. We actually think the future's going to be event-driven. So since we can't predict the future, we want to spend a lot of our time trying to create that future.

I'm very, very intrigued by the fact that our cars and trucks sit idle 90 percent of the time: they're parked, they parked all around us. They're usually parked within 100 feet of the people that own them. Now, if you take the power-generating capability of an automobile and you compare that to the electric grid in the United States, it turns out that 4 percent of the automobiles, the power in 4 percent of the automobiles, equals that of the electric grid of the US. that's a huge power-generating capability, a mobile power-generating capability. And hydrogen and fuel cells give us that opportunity to actually use our cars and trucks when they're parked to generate electricity for the grid.

And we talked about swarm networks earlier. And talking about the ultimate swarm, about having all of the processors and all of the cars when they're sitting idle being part of a global grid for computing capability. We find that premise quite exciting. The automobile becomes, then, an appliance, not in a commodity sense, but in an appliance, mobile power, mobile platform for information and computing and communication, as well as a form of transportation.

And the key to all of this is to make it affordable, to make it exciting, to get it on a pathway where there's a way to make money doing it. And again, this is a pretty big march to take here. And a lot of people say, how do you sleep at night when you're rustling with a problem of that magnitude? And I tell them I sleep like a baby: I wake up crying every two hours. Actually the theme of this conference, I think, has hit on really one of the major keys to pull that off -- and that's relationships and working together. Thank you very much. (Applause).

Chris Anderson: Larry, Larry, wait, wait, wait, wait, Larry, wait, wait one sec. Just -- I've got so many questions I could ask you. I just want to ask one. You know, I could be wrong about this, but my sense is that in the public mind, today, that GM is not viewed as serious about some of these environmental ideas as some of your Japanese competitors, maybe even as Ford. Are you serious about it, and not just, you know, when the consumers want it, when the regulators force us to do it we will go there? Are you guys really going to try and show leadership on this?

Larry Burns: Yeah, we're absolutely serious. We're into this over a billion dollars already, so I would hope people would think we're serious when we're spending that kind of money. And secondly, it's a fundamental business proposition. I'll be honest with you: we're into it because of business growth opportunities. We can't grow our business unless we solve these problems. The growth of the auto industry will be capped by sustainability issues if we don't solve the problems. And there's a simple principle of strategy that says: Do unto yourself before others do unto you. If we can see this possible future, others can too. And we want to be the first to create it, Chris.


留下您對本課程的評論
標題:
您目前為非會員,留言名稱將顯示「匿名非會員」
只能進行20字留言

留言內容:

驗證碼請輸入5 + 4 =

標籤

現有標籤:1
新增標籤:


有關本課程的討論

目前暫無評論,快來留言吧!

Creative Commons授權條款 本站一切著作係採用 Creative Commons 授權條款授權。
協助推廣單位: