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課程來源:TED
     
Al Gore 對最新氣候趨勢發出的警告
Al Gore warns on latest climate trends
 
講者:Al Gore
20092月演講,20099月在TED上線
 
翻譯:陳盈
簡體編輯:洪曉慧
簡繁轉換:劉契良
後制:陳盈
字幕影片後制:謝旻均
 
 
關於該演講:
Al Gore在TED2009展示了關於世界各地環境的最新投影片,講述令人擔憂的氣候趨勢比科學家預計的更糟,並表明他在「清潔煤炭」問題上的立場。
 
關於Al Gore
他曾經是美國副總統,之後編演電影《不願面對的真相》,現在更是諾貝爾和平獎得主。他成功地讓世人關注氣候變化。親身實踐方面,他創立了新媒介—Keynote電影—也重整了自己
 
為什麼聽他演講:
和一些在政府機構工作的人不同,Al Gore一直在做實事。2000年激烈的大選之後,他離開了華盛頓,但心還懸在那裡。事實上,他警告世人關於氣候變化威脅的努力己成為一股氣勢。他獲奧斯卡大獎的電影,《不願面對的真相》更是票房紀錄有史以來第三高的紀錄片。Gore著名的PowerPoint報告研究細密,風格清晰易懂,因而吸引了原來不感興趣的人。
同時,Gore發現自己可以擔當溝通者的角色。曾經木訥的風格變得親切幽默,顯露出他多種經歷的內涵他當過兵,做過國會議員、參議員、副總統、電視主管、教師和作家。我們可以說,Gore現時的角色是最有利他影響我們環境和世界未來的時刻。
他和跨政府氣候變化委員會(IPCC)一同獲得2007年諾貝爾和平獎。「因為他們致力於建立和傳播人為氣候變化的資訊,並為對抗這種變化所需的措施奠定基礎」。
「Gore是唯一通過『模仿』蠟像館裏的蠟像來自嘲其刻板形象的副總統,他搖身一變成為你所見過的最優秀的教授—隨和、學識淵博、有趣。」
《滾石》
 
Al Gore的網上英文資料:
網站:世代投資公司(Generation Investment Management)
 
[TED科技娛樂設計]
已有中譯字幕的TED影片目錄(繁體)(簡體)。請注意繁簡目錄是不一樣的。
 
Al Gore 對最新氣候趨勢發出的警告
去年我給大家看過這兩張投影片,展示了北極的冰帽。這是過去大概三百萬年形成的,面積有48個州那麼大,現在縮小了40%。但這還不足以說明問題的嚴重性,因為這裏我們看不出冰的厚度。北極冰帽在某種意義上你們看它就像血液那樣,是全球氣候體系中不斷跳動的心臟,其面積在冬天擴大,在夏天縮小。大家從我的下一張投影片會看到過去25年發生的快速變化。紅色標出的是永久冰,大家可以看到,它擴展到深藍色的部分。那是每年冬天都會有的冰,在夏天會縮回去。這稱為「永久冰」,已存在時間有五年或以上,在體內流動。在25年裏,它從這樣,變成了這樣。
 
這個問題的成因是氣候變暖,使北極海周圍的凍土暖起來。凍土裏面有大量的冰凍碳,冰凍碳解凍時會通過微生物變成甲烷,對比大氣層中全球暖化污染的總量。如果我們超過這個最高點,量會翻倍。在阿拉斯加的一些淺湖甲烷已經從水裏不斷冒出。阿拉斯加大學的 Katey Walter教授去年冬天和另一隊人去了另一個淺湖考察(我的天!哇噢!)(笑聲)。她沒事,問題是,我們會變成怎樣?
 
其中一個原因是這個巨大的潛在熱源,使北部的格陵蘭島變暖。這是一條每年都會融化的河,但水量比過去要大很多很多。這是格陵蘭島西南部的Kangerlussuaq河。如果你想知道地面融冰如何導致海平面升高,這是入海口,水流極速增快。在地球另一端的南極,冰量世界第一。上月科學家報告整個南極大陸正處於冰的負平衡狀態,南極洲西部下面是海底島嶼,現在正迅速融化。和格陵蘭島一樣,處於海平面上20英尺。
 
喜馬拉雅山脈的冰量是世界第三。大家看島最上面有新的湖,幾年前這還是冰川。世界上40%的人,一半的飲用水來自這些冰雪融水。在安地斯山脈,這個冰川是這個城市的飲用水源,水流量已經變大了。但當水流消失時,飲用水會減少很多。加州Sierra的積雪雪量已減少了40%,這對水庫而言是個打擊。如你們看到的,預期結果都很不樂觀。
 
世界乾旱已導致火災次數急劇上升,世界上災難的增加率是前所未有的高,過去30年是最乾早75年間的四倍。這是一個完全不永續的發展模式。如果你從歷史來看,就會知道發生了什麼情況。
 
在過去五年,我們每24小時就增加七千萬噸二氧化碳,每天排放二千五百萬噸進入海洋。仔細看看太平洋東部地區,從美洲一直向西,看看印度次大陸的兩側,那裏海洋裏的氧氣正急劇減損。全球暖化的一個最大原因,除了森林砍伐占20%之外,就是石化燃料的燃燒。石油是個問題,煤是最嚴重的問題,美國是兩個最大排放國之一,另外一個是中國。甚至還曾有建議說要建更多的火力發電廠。
 
但我們開始看到海洋在變化。這是過去幾年取消建立的火力發電廠,人們採用了一些綠色環保替代方案。(掌聲)然而,我們國家存在政治鬥爭,煤碳業和石油業在去年裏花了2.5億美元來推行潔淨煤炭。這實在很矛盾。這幅圖讓我想起一些東西。(笑聲)臨近聖誕,在我的家鄉田納西州有十億加侖煤泥傾瀉而出,可能你們都在新聞裏看過。這是流經全國的第二大排汙河。那時馬上就要過聖誕了,這是其中一個聖誕前煤碳業的廣告。
 
短片:(音樂)煤炭老人是快樂的化身,在美國產量豐富,促進了我們的經濟增長,他一天比一天乾淨了,買得起又討人歡喜,讓工人一直有薪水。
 
Al Gore:這是維吉尼亞西部大多數煤的來源,最大的山頂採礦業者,就是Massey Coal的頭頭。
 
(短片)Don Blankenship:我來澄清一下,Al Gore,Nancy Pelosi,Harry Reid,他們連自己在說什麼都不知道。
 
Al Gore:所以氣候保護聯盟開展了兩次運動。這是其中一個,其中的一部分。
 
片中人:在COALergy裏,我們把氣候變化看成我們生意的一個嚴重威脅。這是我們為什麼把它作為首要目標,並投入大量資金。在廣告上,試著揭開煤的真相。事實上,煤並不髒,我們覺得它是乾淨的,聞起來也不錯,所以不用擔心氣候變化。讓我們來處理吧(笑聲)
 
片中人:你們聽說過很多關於潔淨煤炭的東西,我們來看看這種先進的潔淨煤炭設備。太棒了!這機器有點吵,但這是潔淨煤炭技術的聲音。煤炭燃燒成了全球暖化的主要成因,你看到這是很厲害的潔淨煤炭技術,改變一切。好好看看,這是當今的潔淨煤炭技術。
 
Al Gore:最後,積極的替代方案可以協調我們面臨的經濟挑戰及,國家安全挑戰。
 
短片聲音:美國處於危機當中,經濟國家安全和氣候危機。把這些連在一起的,是我們對碳燃料的依賴,例如:高灰分煤(髒煤)和進口石油。但現在有大膽且嶄新的方法來拯救我們,在十年內用百分百潔淨的電,能再次為美國提供能源。這是一個讓美國重新運轉的計畫,讓我們更安全,有助阻止全球暖化。最終,這是一個足以解決我們這些問題的方案,使美國重新獲得能源,來瞭解更多吧。
 
Al Gore:這是最後一個。
 
短片陳述:這與再次為美國獲取能源有關。這是最快的方法,讓我們不再依賴會毀滅地球的高灰分燃料。
 
男人:這就是未來。風、太陽,新的能源網。
 
男人2號:新投資創造高收入的職位。
 
短片陳述:使美國重新獲得資源,是使它成真的時候了。
 
Al Gore:有個古老的非洲諺語「如果想走得快,那要獨自上路,如果要走遠,那麼得結伴而行」。我們要走得快,走得遠。謝謝。(掌聲)
 
 
 
 

以下為系統擷取之英文原文

About this talk

At TED2009, Al Gore presents updated slides from around the globe to make the case that worrying climate trends are even worse than scientists predicted, and to make clear his stance on "clean coal."

About Al Gore

Once the US Vice President, then star of An Inconvenient Truth, now Nobel Peace Prize winner, Al Gore found a way to focus the world's attention on climate change. In doing so, he has invented… Full bio and more links

Transcript

Last year I showed these two slides so that demonstrate that the arctic ice cap, which for most of the last three million years has been the size of the lower 48 states, has shrunk by 40 percent. But this understates the seriousness of this particular problem because it doesn't show the thickness of the ice. The arctic ice cap is, in a sense, the beating heart of the global climate system. It expands in winter and contracts in summer. The next slide I show you will be a rapid fast forward of what's happened over the last 25 years. The permanent ice is marked in red. As you see, it expands to the dark blue. That's the annual ice in winter. And it contracts in summer. The so-called permanent ice, five years old or older, you can see is almost like blood, spilling out of the body here. In 25 years it's gone from this, to this.

This is a problem because the warming heats up the frozen ground around the arctic ocean where there is a massive amount of frozen carbon which, when it thaws, is turned into methane by microbes. Compared to the total amount of global warming pollution in the atmosphere, that amount could double if we cross this tipping point. Already in some shallow lakes in Alaska methane is actively bubbling up out of the water. Professor Katey Walter from the University of Alaska went out with another team to another shallow lake last winter. Video: Whoa! (Laughter) Al Gore: She's okay. The question is whether we will be.

And one reason is, this enormous heat sink heats up Greenland from the north. This is an annual melting river. But the volumes are much larger than ever. This is the Kangerlussuaq River in southwest Greenland. If you want to know how sea level rises from land-base ice melting this is where it reaches the sea. These flows are increasing very rapidly. At the other end of the planet, Antarctica the largest mass of ice on the planet. Last month scientists reported the entire continent is now in negative ice balance. And west Antarctica cropped up on top some under-sea islands, is particularly rapid in its melting. That's equal to 20 feet of sea level, as is Greenland.

In the Himalayas, the third largest mass of ice, at the top you see new lakes, which a few years ago were glaciers. 40 percent of all the people in the world get half of their drinking water from that melting flow. In the Andes, this glacier is the source of drinking water for this city. The flows have increased. But when they go away, so does much of the drinking water. In California there has been a 40 percent decline in the Sierra snowpack. This is hitting the reservoirs. And the predictions, as you've read, are serious.

This drying around the world has lead to a dramatic increase in fires. And the disasters around the world have been increasing at an absolutely extraordinary and unprecedented rate. Four times as many in the last 30 years as in the previous 75. This is a completely unsustainable pattern. If you look at in the context of history you can see what this is doing.

In the last five years we've added 70 million tons of CO2 every 24 hours -- 25 million tons every day to the oceans. Look carefully at the area of the eastern Pacific, from the Americas, extending westward, and on either side of the Indian subcontinent, where there is a radical depletion of oxygen in the oceans. The biggest single cause of global warming, along with deforestation, which is 20 percent of it, is the burning of fossil fuels. Oil is a problem, and coal is the most serious problem. The United States is one of the two largest emitters, along with China. And the proposal has been to build a lot more coal plants.

But we're beginning to see a sea change. Here are the ones that have been cancelled in the last few years with some green alternatives proposed. (Applause) However there is a political battle in our country. And the coal industries and the oil industries spent a quarter of a billion dollars in the last calendar year promoting clean coal, which is an oxymoron. That image reminded me of something. (Laughter) Around Christmas, in my home in Tennessee, a billion gallons of coal sludge was spilled. You probably saw it on the news. This, all over the country, is the second largest waste stream in America. This happened around Christmas. One of the coal industry's ads around Christmas was this one.

Video: ♪♫ Frosty the coal man is a jolly, happy soul. He's abundant here in America, and he helps our economy grow. Frosty the coal man is getting cleaner everyday. He's affordable and adorable, and workers keep their pay.

Al Gore: This is the source of much of the coal in West Virginia. The largest mountaintop miner is the head of Massey Coal.

Video: Don Blankenship: Let me be clear about it. Al Gore, Nancy Pelosi, Harry Reid, they don't know what they're talking about.

Al Gore: So the Alliance for Climate Protection has launched two campaigns. This is one of them, part of one of them.

Video: Actor: At COALergy we view climate change as a very serious threat to our business. That's why we've made it our primary goal to spend a large sum of money on an advertising effort to help bring out and complicate the truth about coal. The fact is, coal isn't dirty. We think it's clean -- smells good, too. So don't worry about climate change. Leave that up to us. (Laughter)

Video: Actor: Clean coal, you've heard a lot about it. So let's take a tour of this state-of-the-art clean coal facility. Amazing! The machinery is kind of loud. But that's the sound of clean coal technology. And while burning coal is one of the leading causes of global warming, the remarkable clean coal technology you see here changes everything. Take a good long look, this is today's clean coal technology.

Al Gore: Finally the positive alternative meshes with our economic challenge and our national security challenge.

Video: Narrator: America is in crisis, the economy, national security, the climate crisis. The thread that links them all, our addiction to carbon based fuels, like dirty coal and foreign oil. But now there is a bold new solution to get us out of this mess. Repower America with 100 percent clean electricity, within 10 years. A plan to put America back to work, make us more secure, and help stop global warming. Finally, a solution that's big enough to solve our problems. Repower America. Find out more.

Al Gore: This is the last one.

Video: Narrator: It's about repowering America. One of the fastest ways to cut our dependence on old dirty fuels that are killing our planet. Man: Future's over here. Wind, sun, a new energy grid. Man # 2: New investments to create high paying jobs. Narrator: Repower America. It's time to get real.

Al Gore: There is an old African proverb that says, "If you want to go quickly, go alone. If you want to go far, go together." We need to go far, quickly. Thank you very much. (Applause)
Now plants are under threat. They're under threat because of changing climate. And they are also under threat because they are sharing a planet with people like us. And people like us want to do things that destroy plants, and their habitats. And whether that's because of food production or because of the introduction of alien plants into places that they really oughtn't be, or because of habitats being used for other purposes, all these things are meaning that plants have to adapt, or die, or move. And plants sometimes find it rather difficult to move because there might be cities and other things in the way.

So if all human life depends on plants, doesn't it make sense that perhaps we should try to save them? I think it does. And I want to tell you about a project to save plants. And the way that you save plants is by storing seeds. Because seeds, in all their diverse glory, are plants' futures. All the genetic information for future generations of plants are held in seeds. So here is the building. It looks rather unassuming really. But it goes down below ground many stories. And it's the largest seed bank in the world. It exists not only in southern England, but distributed around the world. I'll come to that. This is a nuclear-proof facility. God forbid that it should have to withstand that.

So if you're going to build a seed bank, you have to decide what you're going to store in it. Right? And we decided that what we want to store first of all, are the species that are most under threat. And those are they dry land species. So first of all we did deals with 50 different countries. It means negotiating with heads of state, and secretaries of state in 50 countries to sign treaties. We have 120 partner institutions all over the world, in all those countries colored orange. People come from all over the world to learn. And then they go away and plan exactly how they're going to collect these seeds. They have thousands of people all over the world tagging places where those plants are said to exist. They search for them. They find them in flower. And they go back when their seeds have arrived. And they collect the seeds. All over the world.

The seeds -- some of if is very untechnical. You kind of shovel them all in to bags and dry them off. You label them. You do some high-tech things here and there. Some low-tech things here and there. And the main thing is that you have to dry them very carefully, at low temperature. And then you have to store them at about minus 20 degrees C -- that's minus four Fahrenheit, I think -- with a very critically low moisture content. And these seeds will be able to germinate, we believe, with many of the species, in thousands of years, and certainly in hundreds of years.

It's no good storing the seeds if you don't know they're still viable. So every 10 years we do germination tests on every sample of seeds that we have. And this is a distributed network. So all around the world people are doing the same thing. And that enables us to develop germination protocols. That means that we know the right combination of heat and cold and the cycles that you have to get to make the seed germinate. And that is very useful information. And then we grow these things, And we tell people, back in the countries where these seeds have come from, "Look, actually we're not just storing this to get the seeds later, but we can give you this information about how to germinate these difficult plants." And that's already happening.

So where have we got to? I am pleased to unveil that our three billionth seed, that's three thousand millionth seed, is now stored. 10 percent of all plant species on the planet. 24 thousand species are safe. 30 thousand species, if we get the funding, by next year. 25 percent of all the world's plants, by 2020. These are not just crop plants, as you might have seen stored in Svalbard in Norway. Fantastic work there. This is at least 100 times bigger. We have thousands of collections that have been sent out all over the world. Drought-tolerant forest species sent to Pakistan and Egypt. Especially photosynthetic-efficient plants come here to the United States. Salt-tolerant pasture species sent to Australia. The list goes on and on.

These seeds are used for restoration. So in habitats that have already been damaged, like the tall grass prairie, here in the USA, or in mined land in various countries, restoration is already happening because of these species. And because of this collection. Some of these plants, like the ones on the bottom to the left of your screen, they are down to the last few remaining members. The one where the guy is collecting seeds there on the truck, that is down to about 30 last remaining trees. Fantastically useful plant, both for protein and for medicine.

We have training going on in China, in the USA, and many other countries. How much does it cost? 2,800 dollars per species is the average. I think that's cheap, at the price. And that gets you all the scientific data that goes with it. The future research is "How can we find the genetic and molecular markers, for the viability of seeds, without having to plant them every 10 years?" And we're almost there. Thank you very much. (Applause)


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