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課程來源:TED
     

Parag Khanna 談重繪未來國家組合

Parag Khanna maps the future of countries
 

講者:Parag Khanna 2009年7月演講,2009年9月在TEDGlobal上線
 

翻譯: 劉契良
編輯: 洪曉慧
簡繁轉換:陳盈
後制:劉契良
字幕影片後制: 謝旻均
 

影片請按此下載


閱讀中文字幕純文字版本

 

關於這場演講

許多人認為地圖上的國界線已不再重要,但 Parag Khanna 不這麼認為,他用過去與現時的地圖來解釋全球邊界衝突的起因,並為每一起衝突提供簡單但巧妙的解決方案。
 

關於 Parag Khanna

地緣政治專家。Parag Khanna 預測未來美國的影響力會沒落,而新崛起的勢力(威脅)團體可能並非大家所預料中的角色。
 

為何要聽他演講:

政治科學家 Parag Khanna 睜大雙眼遊世界,並已成為對第二與第三世界普遍看法的鋒利批判者,Khanna 近期的著作《第二世界:崛起勢力如何重新定義 21 世紀的全球競爭》探討各國史詩般的政治操弄,奮力要在最終站上全球金字塔的頂端。《君子》雜誌稱 Khanna 是 21 世紀將影響全球的 75 人之一,確切地來說是那些較小的國家將左右世界的未來。  
 

Khanna 強調我們正在進入一段「非極」時代,傳統的權力中心(美國、歐洲、俄國與中國)將光景不再,在他眼中的 21 世紀和封建的 16 世紀很雷同,非國家的角色對世界事務的影響和國家等同。他的下一本著作將探討這種新中古世紀主義及其對外交與產業複合體的影響。  


「許多人對 2008 年美國的看法是,美國是現代版的羅馬帝國,過度擴張、表現不佳,漸漸地步入歷史的垃圾桶,而 Parag Khanna 的看法卻是,胡說,美國人自知的地緣政治幻覺並未減滅,現時只是重組的過程」。 Daniel Pink,《Wired》  


Parag Khanna 的英語網上資料

網站:Parag Khanna's Web Page

網站:New America Foundation

 

 
[TED科技娛樂設計]
已有中譯字幕的TED影片目錄(繁體)(簡體)。請注意繁簡目錄是不一樣的。
 
「翻譯編輯:myoops.org
 

 (此為演講轉稿,語法依隨講者語氣與斷句)

 

我們住在一個無國界的世界嗎?回答前,先看一下這張地圖,當代政治地圖顯示,今日,世界上有超過 200 個國家,這可能是幾個世紀以來首見,這點沒有疑問,但這張可能是更合宜的地圖,我們稱之為 TEDistan,在 TEDistan 的世界確無國界,只有連結與未連結的空間,各位可能就住在螢幕上 40 個最亮點中的其中一處,或是其他次亮點,這些亮點代表著 90% 的全球經濟,但讓我們來談 90% 的全球人口,他們從不會離開出生的地方,對他們而言,民族、國家、邊界與疆界仍然很重要,而且是暴力發生所在,今日在 TED,我們試圖解開一些最難的科學謎題與宇宙祕密,有一個基本的問題未解,我們的基本政治地理,我們如何將人類分配到全世界?這很重要,因為邊界衝突確切點出世界軍事-產業的複雜關係,邊界衝突會破壞許多我們希望達致的進程,所以,我認為我們需要更加瞭解人們、金錢、權力、宗教、文化與科技如何相互影響並改變世界地圖,我們可以試圖預測那些變化,並將其導入較具建設性的方向,因此,我們要來看一些過去的地圖、現時的地圖和一些未面世的地圖,以獲得事務發展方向的基本概念,我們就從 1945 年的世界開始,1945 時,世界上只有 100 個國家,二次世界大戰後,歐洲被毀了,但仍握有大量的海外殖民地,法屬西非、英屬東非、南亞等,經過 40 年代、50 年代、60 年代、70 年代和 80 年代,殖民地自治化浪潮開始發展,超過 50 個新國家誔生了,各位可以看到,非洲支離破碎,印度、巴基斯坦、孟加拉和東南亞國家建立,之後,冷戰結束,冷戰結束和蘇聯解體,東歐各國重獲新生,還有前南斯拉夫各個共和國與巴爾幹半島諸國,以及中亞五國,今日,世界上有 200 多個國家,整個地球遍佈著主權國家與獨立的民族國家,這是否意謂著有人贏就有人輸?
 
 
放大世界上最具戰略地位的區域之一,歐亞大陸東部,如您從地圖上所見,俄羅斯仍是世界上最大的國家,而中國是人口最多的國家,兩國相接的國界漫長,而無法從這張地圖看出的是,俄羅斯一億五千萬人口中的大部份集中住在其西部省份和靠近歐洲的地區,僅有三千萬人住在國土東部地區,事實上,世銀預測,俄羅斯的人口將降至一億二千萬人左右,還有一件事是從地圖上看不出來的,史達林、克魯雪夫和其他的蘇維埃領袖曾強迫俄羅斯人遷到遠東的集中營、勞改營、核子城等,但隨著石油價格上漲,俄羅斯政府投資基礎建設連結全國東西兩岸,而最反常的影響卻是俄羅斯的人口分佈,因為那些被迫遷到東部的人民,自始就不想待在那裡,於是紛紛搭上火車上路,回到西部家鄉,結果是,今日俄羅斯遠東地區,大小是兩個印度國土,只剩下六百萬俄羅斯人,解讀這個區域的發展現況,我們可以從蒙古國著手,有人亦戲稱為蒙「礦」國,為何?因為在蒙「礦」國,中國企業運營和擁有大部份的礦場,銅、鋅和黃金等,他們將礦產向東南運回中國大陸,中國並未攻克蒙古國,而是將其收買了,以前殖民地要征服,今日,國家可以買賣,如果將這個理論套用到西伯利亞,西伯利亞在大部份人看來可能是寒冷、孤絕及不宜人居之處,但實情卻是,隨著全球暖化和溫度上升,突然間,大片的麥田頓現,農經與穀物開始生產於西伯利亞,但這些作物要餵養哪些人?黑龍江南岸,中國黑龍江省與哈爾濱省,居民超過一億人,數量超過整個俄羅斯的人口,十多年來,每一年都有 60,000 人渡江出走,跨越江口北移,遷居這塊孤絕的地域,他們設立自己的巴札和醫療診所,他們已掌控林木產業,並將所伐木材東運中國,就像蒙古國,中國並未攻克俄羅斯,只是租用土地,這是我所謂的全球化-中國模式。
 
 
現在,這張區域圖,可能看起來像是未來 10 到 20 年內的態勢,但別急,這張圖其實已有 700 年的歷史,這是元朝版圖,由元世祖忽必烈領軍,他是成吉斯汗的孫子,歷史不一定會重演,但道理不變,這只是本區域內一些變化的綜覽,即全球化-中國模式,但全球化開啟各種讓我們弱化與改變以往對政治地理的看法,所以,東亞的歷史是,人們不從民族與國界的角度思考,而是帝國與階級的角度,簡言之,即中國與日本模式,這次輪到中國上場,讓我們來一探中國如何重建,遠東的階級制度,一切從全球核心城市開端,記得那 40 個在夜間發亮的耀點,那就是全球經濟中心的分佈點,今日的東亞擁有較多的發亮耀點,對比於全球的其他區域,東京、首爾、北京、上海、香港、新加坡和雪梨等,這些是全球資本的濾網與漏斗,每年有上兆美金流入這個區域,絕大部份投資到中國境內,接著是貿易,圖上向量與箭頭代表愈來愈強的貿易關係往來於中國與區域內的每個國家,核心重點鎖定日本、南韓與澳洲,這些傳統上的堅實美國盟友,舉例而言,澳洲重度倚賴對中國的鐵礦與天然氣出口,針對較貧窮的國家,中國降低關稅,讓寮國與柬埔寨能降低售價進而在出口上倚賴中國,各位可以不時從報章上讀到人們如何期待中國能引領復甦,經濟復甦,不只救亞洲,還可能是全世界,崛起的亞洲自由貿易區,幾乎可說是自由貿易區,區內的貿易量已超過太平洋兩岸貿易量(譯注:美中貿易量),這說明中國已成為區域內的經濟支柱,這項戰略的另一根枝柱是外交,中國已與區域內的許多國家簽定軍事協議,使其成為外交機構的核心所在,像是東亞共同體,其中一些組織甚至沒有讓美國成為會員,這些國家間有互不侵犯的協約,如果中國與美國發生衝突,大部份的成員國誓言袖手旁觀,包括像美國的盟友韓國與澳洲,戰略的另一支柱是人口,這和俄羅斯有關,中國出口商務人士、奶媽、學生、老師,到區域內教授中文,異族聯姻和佔據更大,程度的經濟掌控,漢人已經在馬來西亞、泰國和印尼成為當地主要的經濟動力所在,中國自尊已在區域內復活,這是不變的結果,舉例而言,新加坡以前曾禁止中文教育,現在的政策已轉為鼓勵,如果將這些全加起來,結果為何?如果各位還記得二次世界大戰前的日本曾有過一個願景,打建大日本共榮圈,今日隱現的也許可以稱之為大中華共榮圈,所以,憑管地圖上的線條描繪出何種民族或國界,遠東現時確實隱現的是國族文化,但是位於一個較流暢與宏大的區域內,一切的程序免去輒啟兵戎。
 
 
但中東卻是另外一回事,當地的國家仍對於歐洲殖民國家遺留下的國界感到不自在,我們要如何解讀這個區域的國界?我們應專注於地圖上的那些線條?我要向各位報告的是我稱之為「建國」,點滴成池,從伊拉克講起,美國入侵伊拉克六年後,這個國家的存在仍是形式多於實際,石油曾是讓伊拉克團結的力量之一,現在,它成為國家瓦解的主因,理由是庫德斯坦,庫德族 3,000 年來都在爭取獨立,現在機會終於來了,油管路線出現在庫德斯坦,那是一處蘊藏石油的區域,今日,如果各位到訪庫德斯坦,將會看到庫德聖戰士游擊隊力抗遜尼派伊拉克軍隊,但他們在保衛啥?地圖上真有邊界嗎?沒有,只有油管,如果庫德族人可以控制油管,便可發言,談論成立自己的國家,我們是否應對此感到憂心?因為伊拉克有崩潰的潛在可能,我不認為我們應該,伊拉克仍將是全球第二大的產油國,緊跟在沙烏地阿拉伯之後,我們也還有機會解決一場橫跨 3,000 年的衝突,僅記,庫德斯坦不臨海,它沒有選擇,只能乖乖聽話,才能從其石油資源中獲益,因為它必需透過土耳其和敘利亞或其他國家和伊拉克本身出口,所以,它必需和這些國家保持友好的關係,我們再來探討區域內的一個長期衝突,當然,那就是巴勒斯坦,巴勒斯坦像是製圖學上的破格,因為在一個以色列內有兩塊巴勒斯坦區域,30 年的美國白宮斡旋,並未為這個衝突帶來和平,少了什麼?我認為可能解決問題的所在是基礎建設,今日,金主為此投入了數十億美元的資金,這兩個箭頭象徵著一座拱橋,一座內含通勤鐵路與其他基礎建設的拱穚,連結西岸和加薩走廊,如果加薩走廊能擁有座像樣的港口,並與西岸連結,巴勒斯坦國和巴勒斯坦經濟便有希望,如此一來,我相信便能為這個特殊的衝突帶來和平,從庫德斯坦和巴勒斯坦的例子看來,獨立,但少了基礎建設,一切是白談,這整個區域的前景如何?如果我們聚焦於地圖上國界外的其他線條,何時不安全的局勢才會緩和?最近一次的緩和局勢己是一個世紀前的奧圖曼帝國時期,這是希賈茲鐵路,希賈茲鐵路從伊斯坦堡,經大馬士革一路開到聖城麥地那,甚至還有條支線行駛到海法,位於今日的以色列境內,濱臨地中海,但今日希賈茲鐵路破碎毀損,如果我們能重建地圖上的曲線,基礎建設,而非只是人定的直線國界,我相信中東會是個較和平的區域。
 
 
我們再來看看世界的另一個區塊,前中亞蘇維埃共和國,那些「斯坦」國,這些國家的國界源自史達林的政令,他故意混雜這些國家,希望混合各種族,以便他能加以分化統治,幸運的是,他們國境內的石油與天然氣資源是在蘇聯瓦解之後才發現,我明瞭各位,可能會狐疑「石油、石油、石油,為何他總想要談石油」?這和我們先前所談石油議題有所差別,這裡所指的石油有不同的意涵,以前是考量要如何控制他們的石油?現在他們自己管油,可以肯定的是,每一滴油對他們都很重要,如同殖民國與帝國主義者的算計,螢幕上描繪出的一些油管計畫和可能的發展局勢與路線,這是未來幾十年的走向藍圖,數量繁多,這區域內的一些國家,因為油管,而取得擠身全球經濟的門票並展現出一些重要性,國界不再是他們的界限,舉亞塞拜然而言,亞塞拜然曾是高加索山下被遺忘的角落,但現在因為通往土耳其的巴庫─提比利西─傑伊漢油管,它自我標榜為是西方的新前線,還有土庫曼,這是大部份人公認的冰封內陸國,但現在其國內盛產的天然氣已越過裏海出口供應歐洲市場,另還有一條可能的土庫曼-阿富汗-巴基斯坦-印度油管,最後是哈薩克,以前這名字根本不存在,蘇聯只是將其視為南西伯利亞區域,今日,大部份的國家承認哈薩克是一個潛在的地緣政治要角,為何?因為它巧妙地設計了流穿裏海的油管,向北流經俄羅斯,甚至向東流往中國,愈多的油管象徵著更多絲路,而非另一場英俄大博弈,後著像徵著一方支配其他方,而絲路卻是依賴與相互信任,愈多油管象徵著更多絲路,更少的大博弈支配性競爭,這是對 21 世紀的期待。
 
 
現在來看世界上唯一一處解除國界的區域,以及那如何提升其實力,這個區域當然就是歐洲,歐盟開始時只是六國煤鋼共同體,而其主要的目的其實是要防止德國復辟,並以一種和平的方式加以遏制,但後來擴張到 12 國同盟,那也代表著歐盟旗上的 12 金星,歐盟還形成單一貨幣同盟,現在是全球最強的貿易體,平均而言,歐盟每年併入一個國家,從冷戰以後算起的話,事實上,之後大部份國家的入盟發生在同一天,2004 年,15 個「新」國家加入歐盟,這就是大部份人所認為橫跨 27 國,四億五千萬人口的和平區塊,下一步呢?歐盟的未來為何?螢幕上淡藍色的區塊或區域,有三分之二,或更多是依賴和歐盟的貿易與投資來維持國計,這代表著什麼?貿易與投資訴說著歐洲將採取實際行動,就算這些區域不是歐盟的一部份,他們其實已是在其影響範圍內,舉例,像巴爾幹半島,克羅埃西亞、塞爾維亞、波士尼亞都不是歐盟會員國,還不是,但各位可以搭上德國 ICE 高鐵,幾乎直達阿爾巴尼亞,波士尼亞甚至已在使用歐元,而那也可能是他們將會使用的唯一貨幣,再看歐洲的另一邊緣區域,像是北非,平均而言,每一或兩年,就會有一條新油氣管線流貫地中海,將資源從北非輸送到歐洲,這不僅幫助歐洲降低其依賴俄羅斯能源供應的程度,同時,如果各位於時今到訪北非,可能聽到的是愈來愈多人不認為其區域應劃屬中東,換句話說,我相信法國總統薩科奇提出地中海聯盟是正確的看法,再來探討土耳其和高加索地區,我先前提及亞塞拜然、土耳其和高加索地區走廊的油管已佔有 20% 的歐洲能源供給,所以,土耳其還有必要成為歐盟會員國嗎?我想就免了,因為它實際上已是歐土超勢力的一部份,下一個區域在哪?我們要到哪兒看到國界變化?和「新」國家的誕生?中亞與西亞南部是非常合適的區域,美國入侵阿富汗八年後,不穩定的局勢仍舊緊繃,巴基斯坦與阿富汗仍舊十分脆弱,兩者都未有建設性地處理普什圖民族運動的問題,這面旗幟是飄在 2000 萬普什圖人心中的國族標誌,他們住在阿富汗與巴基斯坦國界的兩邊,我們也不要忽略了南方的暴動,俾路支省,兩週前,俾路支叛軍攻擊巴基斯坦駐軍,而這面是他們豎起的旗幟,後殖民時期的區內較勁發生於全球各地,而且有升溫的趨勢,我希望更多這類的變化發生在世界地圖的國界上,因為國家已離碎,我們當然不能忘了非洲 53 個國家,到目前為止大部份的國家,顯示於地圖時是具有詭異的直線國界,如果我們縱觀全非,便能瞭解更多,像部落分割線等,我們就從蘇丹講起,非洲第二大的國家,歷經了三場持續的內戰,眾所皆知的達富爾種族屠殺,還有發生在國土東境與南蘇丹的內戰,南蘇丹將在 2011 年舉行公投,結果很有可能是獨立。
 
 
最後要提的是北極,能源資源大競賽的目標鎖定在北極底下的海床,誰會勝出?加拿大?俄羅斯?美國?其實是格陵蘭,幾週前,格陵蘭的 60,000 居民投票爭取自治權,不願再受轄於丹麥,丹麥國土將會因此大幅縮小,這一切的寓意何在?地緣政治不是感情用事的學科,它持續不斷地變形、轉變這個世界,像氣候變化,就像我們與生態系統的關係,永遠都在找尋平衡點,如何將我們分配到全球,我們恐懼地圖上的國界變化,害怕內戰、死傷,也害怕學習新國名,但我相信受限於現時國界將更糟、更暴力,問題是我們要如何改變那些國界線,還有要集中在哪些種線條上?我相信,只要我們專注於橫越國界的線條,即基礎建設線,我們便能創造出我們想要的世界,一個無國界的世界,感謝聆聽。
(掌聲)
 

 

以下為系統擷取之英文原文

About this talk

Many people think the lines on the map no longer matter, but Parag Khanna says they do. Using maps of the past and present, he explains the root causes of border conflicts worldwide and proposes simple yet cunning solutions for each.

About Parag Khanna

Geopolitical expert Parag Khanna foresees a future where American influence is waning, and the new powerhouses (and threats) may not be the players you'd expect. Full bio and more links

Transcript

Do we live in a borderless world? Before you answer that have a look at this map. Contemporary political map shows that we have over 200 countries in the world today. That's probably more than at any time in centuries. Now many of you will object. For you this would be a more appropriate map. You could call it TEDistan. In TEDistan there are no borders, just connected spaces and unconnected spaces. Most of you probably reside in one of the 40 dots on this screen, of the many more, that represent 90 percent of the world economy.

But let's talk about the 90 percent of the world population that will never leave the place in which they were born. For them, nations, countries, boundaries, borders still matter a great deal, and often violently. Now here at TED we're solving some of the great riddles of science and mysteries of the universe. Well here is a fundamental problem we have not solved: our basic political geography. How do we distribute ourselves around the world?

Now this is important because border conflicts justify so much of the world's military-industrial complex. Border conflicts can derail so much of the progress that we hope to achieve here. So I think we need a deeper understanding of how people, money, power, religion, culture, technology interact to change the map of the world. And we can try to anticipate those changes, and shape them in a more constructive direction.

So we're going to look at some maps of the past, the present and some maps you haven't seen in order to get a sense of where things are going. Let's start with the world of 1945. 1945 there were just 100 countries in the world. After World War II Europe was devastated, but still held large overseas colonies: French West Africa, British East Africa, South Asia, and so forth. Then over the late '40s, '50s, '60s, '70s and '80s, waves of decolonization took place. Over 50 new countries were born. You can see that Africa has been fragmented. India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, South East Asian nations created. Then came the end of the Cold War. The end of the Cold War and the disintegration of the Soviet Union. You had the creation of new states in Eastern Europe, the former Yugoslav republics and the Balkans, and the 'stans of central Asia.

Today we have 200 countries in the world. Then entire planet is covered by sovereign, independent nation-states. Does that mean that someone's gain has to be someone else's loss? Let's zoom in on one of the most strategic areas of the world, Eastern Eurasia. As you can see on this map, Russia is still the largest country in the world. And as you know, China is the most populous. And they share a lengthy land border.

What you don't see on this map is that most of Russia's 150 million people are concentrated in its western provinces and areas that are close to Europe. And only 30 million people are in its eastern areas. In fact, the world bank predicts that Russia's population is declining towards about 120 million people

And there is another thing that you don't see on this map. Stalin, Kruschev, and other Soviet leaders forced Russians out to the far east to be in gulags, labor camps, nuclear cites, whatever the case was. But as oil prices rose, Russian governments have invested in infrastructure to unite the country, east and west. But nothing has more perversely impacted Russia's demographic distribution. Because the people in the east, who never wanted to be there anyway have gotten on those trains and roads, and gone back to the west. As a result, in the Russian far east today, which is twice the size of India, you have exactly six million Russians.

So lets get a sense of what is happening in this part of the world. We can start with Mongolia, or as some call it, Mine-golia. Why do they call it that? Because in Mine-golia, Chinese firms operate and own most of the mines -- copper, zinc, gold -- and they truck the resources south and east into mainland China. China isn't conquering Mongolia. It's buying it. Colonies were once conquered. Today countries are bought.

So let's apply this principle to Siberia. Siberia most of you probably think of as a cold, desolate, unlivable place. But in fact, with global warming and rising temperatures, all of the sudden you have vast wheat fields and agribusiness, and grain being produced in Siberia. But who is it going to feed? Well, just on the other side of the Amo River, in the Heilongjiang and Harbin provinces of China you have over 100 million people. That's larger than the entire population of Russia.

Every single year, for at least a decade or more, [60,000] of them have been voting with their feet, crossing, moving north, and inhabiting this desolate terrain. They set up their own bazaars and medical clinics. They've taken over the timber industry and been shipping the lumber east, back into China. Again, like Mongolia, China isn't conquering Russia. It's just leasing it. That's what I call globalization Chinese style.

Now maybe this is what the map of the region might look like in 10 to 20 years. But hold on. This map is 700 years old. This is the map of the Yuan Dynasty, lead by Kubla Khan, the grandson of Genghis Khan. So history doesn't necessarily repeat itself, but it does rhyme.

This is just to give you a taste of what's happening in this part of the world. Again, globalization Chinese style. Because globalization opens up all kinds of ways for us to undermine and change the way we think about political geography. So, the history of East Asia in fact, people don't think about nations and borders. They think more in terms of empires and hierarchies, usually Chinese or Japanese.

Well it's China's turn again. So let's look at how China is restablishing that hierarchy in the far east. It starts with the global hubs. Remember the 40 dots on the nighttime map that show the hubs of the global economy. East Asia today has more of those global hubs than any other region in the world. Tokyo, Seoul, Beijing, Shanghai, Hong Kong, Singapore and Sidney. These are the filters and funnels of global capital. Trillions of dollars a year being brought into the region. So much of it being invested into China.

Then there is trade. These vectors and arrows represent ever stronger trade relationships that China has with every country in the region. Specifically it targets Japan and Korea and Australia, countries that are strong allies of the United States. Australia, for example, is heavily dependent on exporting iron ore, natural gas to China. For poorer countries, China reduces tariffs so that Laos and Cambodia can sell their goods more cheaply and become dependent on exporting to China as well.

And now many of you have been reading in the news how people are looking to China to lead the rebound, the economic rebound, not just in Asia, but potentially for the world. The Asian free trade zone, almost free trade zone, that's emerging now has a greater trade volume than trade across the Pacific. So China is becoming the anchor of the economy in the region.

Another pillar of this strategy is diplomacy. China has signed military agreements with many countries in the region. It has become the hub of diplomatic institutions such as the East Asian Community. Some of these organizations don't even have the United States as a member. There is a treaty of nonaggression between countries, such that if there were a conflict between China and the United States, most countries vow to just sit it out, including American allies like Korea and Australia.

Another pillar of the strategy, like Russia, is demographic. China exports business people, nannies, students, teachers to teach Chinese around the region, to intermarry and to occupy ever greater commanding heights of the economies. Already ethnic Chinese people in Malaysia, Thailand and Indonesia are the real key factors and drivers in the economies there. Chinese pride is resurgent in the region as a result. Singapore, for example, used to ban Chinese language education. Now it encourages it.

If you add it all up what do you get? Well, if you remember before World War II, Japan had a vision for a greater Japanese co-prosperity sphere. What's emerging today is what you might call a greater Chinese co-prosperity sphere. So no matter what the lines on the map tell you in terms of nations and borders, what you really have emerging in the far east are national cultures, but in a much more fluid, imperial zone. All of this is happening without firing a shot.

That's most certainly not the case in the Middle East where countries are still very uncomfortable in the borders left behind by European colonialists. So what can we do to think about borders differently in this part of the world? What lines on the map should we focus on? What I want to present to you is what I call State building, day by day.

Let's start with Iraq. Six years after the U.S. invasion of Iraq the country still exists more on a map than it does in reality. Oil used to be one of the forces holding Iraq together. Now it is the most significant cause of the country's disintegration. The reason is Kurdistan. The Kurds for 3,000 years have been waging a struggle for independence. And now is their chance to finally have it. These are pipeline routes, which emerge from Kurdistan, which is an oil-rich region.

And today, if you go to Kurdistan, you'll see that Kurdish Peshmerga guerillas are squaring off against the Sunni Iraqi army. But what are they guarding? Is it really a border on the map? No. It's the pipelines. If the Kurds can control their pipelines, they can set the terms of their own statehood. Now should we be upset about this, about the potential disintegration of Iraq? I don't believe we should. Iraq will still be the second largest oil producer in the world, behind Saudi Arabia. And we'll have a chance to solve a 3,000 year old dispute. Now remember Kurdistan is landlocked. It has no choice but to behave. In order to profit from its oil it has to export it through Turkey or Syria, and other countries, and Iraq itself. And therefore it has to have amicable relations with them.

Now lets look at a perennial conflict in the region. That is, of course, in Palestine. Palestine is something of a cartographic anomaly because it's two parts Palestinian, one part Israel. 30 years of rose garden diplomacy have not delivered us peace in this conflict. What might? I believe that what might solve the problem is infrastructure. Today donors are spending billions of dollars on this. These two arrows are an arc, an arc of commuter railroads and other infrastructure that link the West Bank and Gaza.

If Gaza can have a functioning port and be linked to the West Bank you can have a viable Palestinian state, Palestinian economy. That, I believe, is going to bring peace to this particular conflict. The lesson from Kurdistan and from Palestine, is that independence alone, without infrastructure, is futile.

Now what might this entire region look like if in fact we focus on other lines on the map besides borders, when the insecurities might abate? The last time that was the case was actually a century ago, during the Ottoman Empire. This is the Hijaz Railway. The Hijaz Railway ran from Istanbul to Medina via Damascus. It even had an offshoot running to Haifa in what is today Israel, on the Mediterranean Sea. But today the Hijaz Railway lies in tatters, ruins. If we were to focus on reconstructing these curvy lines on the map, infrastructure, that cross the straight lines, the borders, I believe the Middle East would be a far more peaceful region.

Now let's look at another part of the world, the former Soviet Republics of Central Asia, the 'stans. These countries' borders originate from Stalin's decrees. He purposely did not want these countries to make sense. He wanted ethnicities to mingle in ways that would allow him to divide and rule. Fortunately for them, most of their oil and gas resources were discovered after the Soviet Union collapsed.

Now I know some of you may be thinking, "Oil, oil, oil. Why is all he's talking about is oil?" Well there is a big difference in the way we used to talk about oil and the way we're talking about it now. Before it was, how do we control their oil? Now it's their oil for their own purposes. And I assure you it's every bit as important to them as it might have been to colonizers and imperialists. Here are just some of the pipeline projections and possibilities and scenarios and routes that are being mapped out for the next several decades. A great deal of them.

For a number of countries in this part of the world, having pipelines is the ticket to becoming part of the global economy and for having some meaning, besides the borders that they are not loyal to themselves. Just take Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan was a forgotten corner of the Caucuses. But now with the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline into Turkey, it has rebranded itself as the frontier of the west.

Then there is Turkmenistan which most people think of as a frozen basket case. But now it's contributing gas across the Caspian Sea to provide for Europe, and even a potentially Turkmen- Afghan-Pakistan-India pipeline as well.

Then there is Kazakhstan, which didn't even have a name before. It was more considered South Siberia during the Soviet Union. Today most people recognize Kazakhstan as an emerging geopolitical player. Why? Because it has shrewdly designed pipelines to flow across the Caspian, north through Russia, and even east to China. More pipelines means more silk roads, instead of the Great Game. The Great Game connotes dominance of one over the other. Silk road connotes independence and mutual trust. The more pipelines we have, the more silk roads we'll have, and the less of a dominant Great Game competition we'll have in the 21st Century.

Now let's look at the only part of the world that really has brought down its borders, and how that has enhanced its strength. And that is, of course, Europe. The European Union began as just the coal and steel community of six countries. And their main purpose was really to keep the rehabilitation of Germany to happen in a peaceful way. But then eventually it grew into 12 countries. And those are the 12 stars on the European flag. The E.U. also became a currency block, and is now the most powerful trade block in the entire world. On average the E.U. has grown by one country per year since the end of the Cold War. In fact most of that happened on just one day. In 2004, 15 new countries joined the E.U. and now you have what most people consider a zone of peace spanning 27 countries and 450 million people.

So what is next? What is the future of the European Union? Well in light blue, you see the zones or the regions that are at least two-thirds or more dependent on the European Union for trade and investment. What does that tell us? Trade and investment tell us that Europe is putting its money where its mouth is. Even if these regions aren't part of the E.U., they are becoming part of its sphere of influence. Just take the Balkans. Croatia, Serbia Bosnia, they're not members of the E.U. yet. But you can get on a German ICE train and make it almost to Albania. In Bosnia you use the Euro currency already, and that's the only currency they're probably ever going to have.

So, looking at other parts of Europe's periphery, such as North Africa. On average, every year or two, a new oil or gas pipeline opens up under the Mediterranean, connecting North Africa to Europe. That not only helps Europe diminish its reliance on Russia for energy, but if travel to North Africa today you'll hear more and more people saying that they don't really think of their region as the Middle East. So in other words, I believe that President Sarkozy of France is right when he talks about a Mediterranean union.

Now let's look at Turkey, and the Caucasus. I mentioned Azerbaijan before. That corridor of Turkey and the Caucasus has become the conduit for 20 percent of Europe's energy supply. So does Turkey really have to be a member of the European Union? I don't think it does. I think it's already part of a Euro-Turkish superpower.

So what's next? Where are we going to see borders change and new countries born? Well, South Central Asia, South West Asia is a very good place to start. Eight years after the U.S. invaded Afghanistan there is still a tremendous amount of instability. Pakistan and Afghanistan are still so fragile that neither of them have dealt constructively with the problem of Pashtun nationalism. This is the flag that flies in the minds of 20 million Pashtuns who live on both sides of the the Afghan and Pakistan border.

Let's not neglect the insurgency just to the south. Baluchistan. Two weeks ago Baluchi rebels attacked a Pakistani military garrison and this was the flag that they raised over it. The post-colonial entropy that is happening around the world is accelerating. And I expect more such changes to occur in the map as the states fragment.

Of course we can't forget Africa. 53 countries, and by far the most number of suspiciously straight lines on the map. If we were to look at all of Africa we could most certainly acknowledge far more, tribal divisions and so forth. But let's just look at Sudan, the second-largest country in Africa. It has three ongoing civil wars, the genocide in Darfur, which you all know about, the civil war in the east of the country, and south Sudan. South Sudan is going to be having a referendum in 2011 in which it is very likely to vote itself independence.

Now let's go up to the Arctic Circle. There is a great race on for energy resources under the Arctic seabed. Who will win? Canada? Russia? The United States? Actually Greenland. Several weeks ago Greenland's [60,000] people voted themselves self-governance rights from Denmark. So Denmark is about to get a whole lot smaller.

What is the lesson from all of this? Geopolitics is a very unsentimental discipline. It's constantly morphing and changing the world, like climate change. And like our relationship with the ecosystem we're always searching for equilibrium in how we divide ourselves across the planet. Now we fear changes on the map. We fear civil wars, death tolls, having to learn the names of new countries. But I believe that the inertia of the existing borders that we have today is far worse and far more violent.

The question is how do we change those borders, and what lines do we focus on? I believe we focus on the lines that cross borders, the infrastructure lines, then we'll wind up with the world we want, a borderless one. Thank you. (Applause)
 


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