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課程來源:TED
     

 

Sebastian Wernicke談關於TEDTalks的謊言與統計數據

Sebastian Wernicke:Lies, damned lies and statistics (about TEDTalks)

 

Photo of three lions hunting on the Serengeti.

講者:Sebastian Wernicke

2010年2月演講,2010年4月在TED2010上線

 

翻譯:TED

編輯:朱學恆、洪曉慧

簡繁轉換:洪曉慧

後製:洪曉慧

字幕影片後制:謝旻均

 

影片請按此下載

MAC及手持裝置版本請按此下載

閱讀中文字幕純文字版本

 

關於這場演講

在這份絕妙且半開玩笑的分析裡,Sebastian Wernicke 將統計分析工具應用在 TEDTalks裡,根據聽眾所做的評比,發展出一套可製作出「最佳TEDTalk」的工具。你會怎麼評價這個演說?「驚訝得合不攏嘴」?「毫無根據」?或只是純粹「有趣」而已?

 

關於Sebastian Wernicke

在生物資訊領域大放異彩之後,Sebastian Wernicke轉移到企業領域,推動並管理多方面的計畫。

 

為什麼要聽他演講

Sebastian Wernicke目前在Oliver Wyman金融服務顧問公司擔任專案經理,他最初在德國耶拿大學研究生物資訊學。他於學術界從事研究期間,設計了一個分析生物網路的演算法,對研究人員處理生物網路固有的複雜性大有幫助。

 

在他開始統計方面的職業生涯之前,Wernicke擔任過醫療輔助人員及成功的動畫短片製作人。他也是TEDPad應用程式作者,這是一種搞笑工具,用於創造無數「超棒和真糟」的TED演講,大多是完全無意義的內容。

 

「天才又滑稽…」

-@ Brainpicker

 

Sebastian Wernicke的英語網上資料

Get: Get-TEDPad.com

 

[TED科技‧娛樂‧設計]

已有中譯字幕的TED影片目錄(繁體)(簡體)。請注意繁簡目錄是不一樣的。

 

Sebastian Wernicke談關於TEDTalks的謊言與統計數據

若你上TED網站,你會立刻看到超過一整個星期的TEDTalk影片,超過130萬字的字幕,還有百萬以上的使用者評價。這是很龐大的資料量,所以我想,如果你將這所有資料進行統計分析,是否能反向製作出一個TEDTalk?是否能創造出一個「最棒的」TEDTalk?(掌聲)或是,是否能製作出一個最爛的TEDTalk,而且還可以全身而退?

 

為了找到解答,我觀察了三個層面。我先觀察該選什麼演說標題,再觀察在台上該怎麼表達,以及使用什麼視覺輔助。先來說標題,你可以選的標題範圍很廣,但你應該謹慎選擇,因為你所選定的標題將會嚴重影響聽眾對你演說的反應。為了說的更具體些,讓我們看看前十名最佳字句。這是統計分析的結果,分別從聽眾最喜愛和最不喜愛的TEDTalks中篩選出來的。所以,如果你到這兒來談論「法國咖啡如何在我們的大腦裡傳播快樂」,那就對了!(掌聲)但如果你想談論關於你所從事的專案計畫內容,包含氧氣、女孩、飛機等,我個人其實還蠻想聽這種演說的,但統計數據告訴我們這不夠吸引人。喔,好吧,如果我們廣泛地推論,最受歡迎的TEDTalks標題是聽眾容易與之產生共鳴的,既簡單又深入,像是快樂、我們的身體、食物和情緒等。而比較技術性的標題,像建築、材料,還有,這非常奇怪,男人,這些就不是那麼受歡迎的標題。

 

該怎麼進行演說呢?TED最負盛名的是對演講時間的嚴格掌控,所以他們會很討厭我告訴你們這一點,因為事實上你應該在他們允許的時間內長篇大論,因為最受歡迎的TEDTalks比最不受歡迎的演說,平均時間長上一半。這是TED.com排行榜告訴我們的事實,除非你的演說是優美、具啟發性或是有趣的,那麼,你應該簡潔些,不然的話,你應該一直說到他們把你拖下台為止。

 

(笑聲)

 

嗯,好…(掌聲)在你爭取更多演說時間的同時,還有幾項規則要遵守。我比較演說中出現辭句的統計結果,發現了這些規則,看看哪些在最受歡迎的TEDTalks中較常出現,哪些在最不受歡迎的TEDTalks中出現,我會舉三個例子說明。首先,身為一個演說者,我必須提供我所知道的資訊給聽眾,而不是告訴聽眾我不知道什麼。第二,要記住,不要引用紐約時報的報導。(笑聲)最後,我要告訴你們一個好消息,要學會不懂裝懂,如果不瞭解某件事,就用「諸如此類…」來矇混過去,你們都知道我在說什麼吧!這樣絕對沒問題。(掌聲)

 

現在我們來談談視覺輔助。講台上最醒目的視覺標的就是演說者,統計分析顯示,若你想成為最受歡迎的TED演說者,你應該把頭髮留得比一般人長一點。記得戴上眼鏡,穿得比一般TED演說者再正式一點。投影片可以用,但如果有道具輔助會更好。然而,最重要的是講台上的氣氛。色彩佔有很重要的地位,色彩跟演講在網路上的評價有相當密切的關係。(掌聲)舉例來說,被評為「引人入勝」的TEDTalks,都大量使用這種藍色,使用頻率比一般TEDTalks高得多。被評為「機智」的TEDTalks大多使用這種綠色,諸如此類…(掌聲)我個人覺得,我應該不是第一個做這種分析的人,但這留給你們自己判斷吧!

 

現在是我們把所有東西拼湊在一起,製作出最棒TEDTalks的時候了。由於這是TEDActive,從我的分析資料裡,我知道我該給你們一些實際的東西,我不會硬塞給你們一部最棒或最爛的TEDTalks,但我會給你們一套製作自己演說的工具,我把這個工具命名為TED Pad。(笑聲)TED Pad 內含有100組精選語句,你可以善加組合,製作出你自己的TEDTalk。你要做的決定只有一個,那就是:你打算使用白色版本來製作優質的TEDTalks,內容是關於創造力、人類的才智呢?還是打算選用黑色版本,讓你可以製作出超爛的TEDTalks,內容大部分涵蓋部落格和政治這些玩意兒?現在就下載,好好玩一玩吧!

 

希望你們喜歡我的演說,也希望你們享受自己製作最棒及最爛的TEDTalks的樂趣,也希望你們之中有人受到啟發,明年站上講台演說,我相當期待。

 

謝謝。

 

(掌聲)

 

以下為系統擷取之英文原文

About this Talk

In a brilliantly tongue-in-cheek analysis, Sebastian Wernicke turns the tools of statistical analysis on TEDTalks, to come up with a metric for creating "the optimum TEDTalk" based on user ratings. How do you rate it? "Jaw-dropping"? "Unconvincing"? Or just plain "Funny"?

About the Speaker

After making a splash in the field of bioinformatics, Sebastian Wernicke moved on to the corporate sphere where he motivates and manages multidimensional projects. Full bio and more links

Transcript

If you go on the TED website, you can currently find there over a full week of TED Talk videos, over 1.3 million words of transcripts and millions of user ratings. And that's a huge amount of data. And it got me wondering: If you took all this data and put it through statistical analysis, could you reverse engineer a TED Talk? Could you create the ultimate TED Talk? (Applause) And also, could you create the worst possible TED Talk that they would still let you get away with?

To find this out, I looked at three things. I looked at the topic that you should choose. I looked at how you should deliver it and the visuals onstage. Now, with the topic -- there's a whole range of topics you can choose, but you should choose wisely, because your topic strongly correlates with how users will react to your Talk. Now, to make this more concrete, let's look at the list of top 10 words that statistically stick out in the most favorite TED Talks and in the least favorite TED Talks. So if you came here to talk about how French coffee will spread happiness in our brains, that's a go. (Applause) Whereas, if you wanted to talk about your project involving oxygen, girls, aircraft -- actually, I would like to hear that talk, but statistics say it's not so good. Oh, well. If you generalize this, the most favorite TED Talks are those that feature topics we can connect with, both easily and deeply, such as happiness, our own body, food, emotions. And the more technical topics, such as architecture, materials and, strangely enough, men, those are not good topics to talk about.

How should you deliver your Talk? TED is famous for keeping a very sharp eye on the clock, so they're going to hate me for revealing this, because, actually, you should talk as long as they will let you, because the most favorite TED Talks are, on average, over 50 percent longer than the least favorite ones. And this holds true for all ranking lists on TED.com except if you want to have a Talk that's beautiful, inspiring or funny. Then, you should be brief. But other than that, talk until they drag you off the stage.

(Laughter)

Now, while -- (Applause) While you're pushing the clock, there's a few rules to obey. I found these rules out by comparing the statistics of four-word phrases that appear more often in the most favorite TED Talks, as opposed to the least favorite TED Talks. I'll give you three examples. First of all, I must, as a speaker, provide a service to the audience and talk about what I will give you, instead of saying what I can't have. Secondly, it's imperative that you do not cite the New York Times. (Laughter) And finally, it's okay for the speaker -- that's the good news -- to fake intellectual capacity. If I don't understand something, I can just say, "et cetera, et cetera." You'll all stay with me. It's perfectly fine. (Applause)

Now, let's go to the visuals. The most obvious visual thing on stage is the speaker. And analysis shows, if you want to be among the most favorite TED speakers, you should let your hair grow a little bit longer than average, make sure you wear your glasses and be slightly more dressed-up than the average TED speaker. Slides are okay, though you might consider going for props. And now the most important thing, that is the mood onstage. Color plays a very important role. Color closely correlates with the ratings that Talks get on the website. (Applause) For example, fascinating Talks contain a statistically high amount of exactly this blue color, much more than the average TED Talk. Ingenious TED Talks, much more this green color, et cetera, et cetera. (Applause) Now, personally, I think I'm not the first one who has done this analysis, but I'll leave this to your good judgment.

So, now it's time to put it all together and design the ultimate TED Talk. Now, since this is TED Active, and I learned from my analysis that I should actually give you something, I will not impose the ultimate or worst TED Talk on you, but rather give you a tool to create your own. And I call this tool the TED Pad. (Laughter) And the TED Pad is a matrix of 100 specifically selected, highly curated sentences that you can easily piece together to get your own TED Talk. You only have to make one decision and that is: Are you going to use the white version for very good TED Talks, about creativity, human genius? Or are you going to go with a black version, which will allow you to create really bad TED Talks, mostly about blogs, politics and stuff? So, download it, and have fun with it.

Now I hope you enjoy the session. I hope you enjoy designing your own ultimate and worst possible TED Talks. And I hope some of you will be inspired for next year to create this, which I really want to see.

Thank you very much.

(Applause)
 


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