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課程來源:TED
     

 

Rob Reid 談80億美元的iPod

Rob Reid: The $8 billion iPod

 

Photo of three lions hunting on the Serengeti.

講者:Rob Reid

2012年2月演講,2012年3月在TED 2012上線

 

翻譯:洪曉慧

編輯:朱學恆

簡繁轉換:洪曉慧

後製:洪曉慧

字幕影片後制:謝旻均

 

影片請按此下載

MAC及手持裝置版本請按此下載

閱讀中文字幕純文字版本

 

關於這場演講

漫畫作家Rob Reid介紹了版權數學(版權所有盜版必究)〔Copyright Math (TM)〕,這是一個以娛樂產業律師和說客提供的實際數字為基礎的全新研究領域。

 

關於Rob Reid

Rob Reid是一位幽默作家及創造音樂訂購服務的公司-Rhapsody之創辦人。

 

為什麼要聽他演講

Rob Reid是一位作家及連續創業家。他創辦了一間創造了Rhapsody音樂網站的公司,他的最新著作《零年》(Year Zero)將於7月出版。在這本書中,外星人藉由毀滅地球,來消除其龐大美國盜版音樂收藏的巨額罰款。其中僅有部分內容是虛構的。

 

Rob Reid的英語網上資料

 

[TED科技‧娛樂‧設計]

已有中譯字幕的TED影片目錄(繁體)(簡體)。請注意繁簡目錄是不一樣的。

 

Rob Reid 談80億美元的iPod

 

最近關於著作權法的爭論,像美國的禁止網路盜版法案(SOPA)和歐洲的反仿冒貿易協定(ACTA)都爭論的相當情緒化,我認為使用一些客觀、量化的邏輯推論,對這方面的爭論將會有很大幫助。因此我想建議,每當我們討論這個主題時,應該引入並善用版權數學這個尖端領域。

 

例如,就在最近,美國電影協會宣佈,盜版每年造成的經濟損失是580億美元。現在,與其對這個數字進行爭論,版權數學家會分析這個數字,他很快就會發現,這筆錢排列起來可以從這間演講廳一路穿越海洋大道,到威斯汀酒店,然後抵達火星…(笑聲)…如果我們使用一分硬幣的話。

 

現在,這顯然是一個強大的,有人或許會說是極為強大的觀點,但也是具有重要道德意義的觀點。因為這不只是某些我們所說的盜版電影預期零售價,而是實際上的經濟損失。這相當於整個美國的玉米種植量損失,加上我們所有的水果作物,以及小麥、煙草、稻米和高粱-不管是什麼高粱-總之是高粱的損失。

 

但衡量經濟上的實際損失幾乎是不可能的,除非我們使用版權數學觀點。現在,音樂產業收入每年大約下降80億元-自從Napster網站出現之後;所以這一塊就是我們要尋找的部分。但整個電影行業的收入,包括電影院、錄影帶及付費電視節目收入上升,還有電視、衛星電視及有線電視節目的收入一路上升。其他智慧產業市場,例如圖書出版及廣播的收入也在上升,所以缺少的這一小塊著實令人費解。

 

(笑聲)

 

(掌聲)

 

因為這個大智慧產業市場的成長符合歷史架構,盜版行為並沒有阻止它們的額外增長。但版權數學告訴我們,必定有某種已知的增長,存在於不屬於歷史架構當中的市場,某個90年代並不存在的市場。

 

我們在這裡看到的是手機鈴聲侵權的潛在成本。(笑聲)每年500億美元,以30秒鈴聲來說實在不少,這些錢可以從這裡一直排到尼安德塔人時代。(笑聲)這是真的。(掌聲)我有Excel可以證明。

 

(笑聲)

 

電影界人士也告訴我們,智慧產權被侵犯,造成超過37萬人失業的經濟損失,如果你以1998年的情況考慮,這算是相當多了。美國勞工統計局表示,電影及影片產業僱用了27萬員工,其他資料顯示音樂行業大約有四萬五千名雇員。隨著網路風行帶來的失業,以及智慧財產被侵犯,降低了我們智慧產業的就業率。這僅是版權數學家每天必須處理的眾多令人沮喪的統計之一,有些人認為這就跟弦理論一樣難。

 

(笑聲)

 

這是版權數學家工具箱裡的一個關鍵數字,這是每當一首歌曲或電影被盜版時,媒體公司損失的確切數額。好萊塢和國會用數學方法計算出這個數字,當他們上次討論減少版權損失及制定版權法時。有些人認為這個數字大了些,但身為媒體遊說專家的版權數學家們只是感到驚訝,這個數字不會隨著每年的通貨膨脹而增長。

 

現在,當這項法律首次通過的時候,全球最熱銷的MP3播放器只能存10首歌,這是當時熱門的聖誕禮物,因為哪個小流氓不想把價值150萬的贓物放進口袋裡?

 

(笑聲)

 

(掌聲)

 

如今,一個iPod Classic播放器可以存四萬首歌,相當於價值80億美元的盜版音樂。(掌聲)或大約75000個工作崗位。

 

(笑聲)

 

(掌聲)

 

現在,或許你會認為版權數學很怪,但這是因為它是一個最好留給專家研究的領域,所以目前我就談到這裡。我希望你們下次再來聽我演講,到時我將以科學和事實為根據的調查,說明外星盜版音樂使美國經濟造成的損失。

 

非常感謝。

 

(掌聲)

 

謝謝。

 

(掌聲)

 

以下為系統擷取之英文原文

About this Talk

Comic author Rob Reid unveils Copyright Math (TM), a remarkable new field of study based on actual numbers from entertainment industry lawyers and lobbyists.

About the Speaker

Rob Reid is a humor author and the founder of the company that created the music subscription service Rhapsody. Full bio »

Transcript

The recent debate over copyright laws like SOPA in the United States and the ACTA agreement in Europe has been very emotional. And I think some dispassionate, quantitative reasoning could really bring a great deal to the debate. I'd therefore like to propose that we employ, we enlist, the cutting edge field of copyright math whenever we approach this subject.

For instance, just recently the Motion Picture Association revealed that our economy loses 58 billion dollars a year to copyright theft. Now rather than just argue about this number, a copyright mathematician will analyze it and he'll soon discover that this money could stretch from this auditorium all the way across Ocean Boulevard to the Westin, and then to Mars ... (Laughter) ... if we use pennies.

Now this is obviously a powerful, some might say dangerously powerful, insight. But it's also a morally important one. Because this isn't just the hypothetical retail value of some pirated movies that we're talking about, but this is actual economic losses. This is the equivalent to the entire American corn crop failing along with all of our fruit crops, as well as wheat, tobacco, rice, sorghum -- whatever sorghum is -- losing sorghum.

But identifying the actual losses to the economy is almost impossible to do unless we use copyright math. Now music revenues are down by about eight billion dollars a year since Napster first came on the scene. So that's a chunk of what we're looking for. But total movie revenues across theaters, home video and pay-per-view are up. And TV, satellite and cable revenues are way up. Other content markets like book publishing and radio are also up. So this small missing chunk here is puzzling.

(Laughter)

(Applause)

Since the big content markets have grown in line with historic norms, it's not additional growth that piracy has prevented, but copyright math tells us it must therefore be foregone growth in a market that has no historic norms -- one that didn't exist in the 90's. What we're looking at here is the insidious cost of ringtone piracy. (Laughter) 50 billion dollars of it a year, which is enough, at 30 seconds a ringtone, that could stretch from here to Neanderthal times. (Laughter) It's true. (Applause) I have Excel.

(Laughter)

The movie folks also tell us that our economy loses over 370,000 jobs to content theft, which is quite a lot when you consider that, back in '98, the Bureau of Labor Statistics indicated that the motion picture and video industries were employing 270,000 people. Other data has the music industry at about 45,000 people. And so the job losses that came with the Internet and all that content theft, have therefore left us with negative employment in our content industries. And this is just one of the many mind-blowing statistics that copyright mathematicians have to deal with every day. And some people think that string theory is tough.

(Laughter)

Now this is a key number from the copyright mathematicians' toolkit. It's the precise amount of harm that comes to media companies whenever a single copyrighted song or movie gets pirated. Hollywood and Congress derived this number mathematically back when they last sat down to improve copyright damages and made this law. Some people think this number's a little bit large, but copyright mathematicians who are media lobby experts are merely surprised that it doesn't get compounded for inflation every year.

Now when this law first passed, the world's hottest MP3 player could hold just 10 songs. And it was a big Christmas hit. Because what little hoodlum wouldn't want a million and a half bucks-worth of stolen goods in his pocket.

(Laughter)

(Applause)

These days an iPod Classic can hold 40,000 songs, which is to say eight billion dollars-worth of stolen media. (Applause) Or about 75,000 jobs.

(Laughter)

(Applause)

Now you might find copyright math strange, but that's because it's a field that's best left to experts. So that's it for now. I hope you'll join me next time when I will be making an equally scientific and fact-based inquiry into the cost of alien music piracy to he American economy.

Thank you very much.

(Applause)

Thank you.

(Applause)
 


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