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Marco Annunziata 談歡迎來到工業網路時代

Marco Annunziata: Welcome to the age of the industrial internet

 

Photo of three lions hunting on the Serengeti.

講者:Marco Annunziata

2013年10月攝於TED@BCG San Francisco

 

翻譯:洪曉慧

編輯:朱學恒

簡繁轉換:洪曉慧

後制:洪曉慧

字幕影片後制:謝旻均

 

影片請按此下載

MAC及手持裝置版本請按此下載

閱讀中文字幕純文字版本

 

關於這場演講

人人都談論「物聯網」,但這對我們的未來究竟意味著什麼?在這場發人深省的演講中,經濟學家Marco Annunziata著眼於科技如何改變工業領域,創造能觀看、感覺、意識及反應的機器-因此可更有效率地運作。思考一下:需要維修時,可發送警訊的飛機零件;或可彼此通訊、產生更多電力的風力渦輪機。這是能為所有人帶來令人振奮之影響的未來。

 

關於Marco Annunziata

身為通用電氣公司(又稱奇異公司,簡稱GE)首席經濟學家,Marco Annunziata是熱衷科技的金融大師。

 

為什麼要聽他演講

Marco Annunziata是通用電氣公司首席經濟學家,負責分析全球經濟,引導GE的業務策略。他是歐洲中央銀行影子委員會及歐洲經濟學家理事會成員,Annunziata曾上過Bloomberg及CNBC財經頻道,並接受《金融時報》及《華爾街日報》採訪。

 

在金融圈打滾多年後,Annunziata於2011年加入GE,他之前曾任職於意大利聯合信貸銀行、德意志銀行及國際貨幣基金組織,負責研究新興市場及歐元區。Annunziata坦承對自己的第一本著作-《金融危機中的經濟學》(Palgrave Macmillan 2011年出版)-「幼稚地感到驕傲」。這本書將全球財政危機歸因於缺乏常識,大多數人都難辭其咎,並提供從結果中學習正確教訓的指引。

 

Marco Annunziata的英語網上資料

Book: The Economics of the Financial Crisis

Q&A: GE

 

[TED科技‧娛樂‧設計]

已有中譯字幕的TED影片目錄(繁體)(簡體)。請注意繁簡目錄是不一樣的。

 

Marco Annunziata 談歡迎來到工業網路時代

 

愛因斯坦曾說:「我從不思考未來,因為它來得太快了。」

 

當然,他說得沒錯。因此我今天在此呼籲大家思考未來的世界正如何發展。過去200年中,世界經歷了兩波巨大創新。首先是工業革命,為我們帶來機器、工廠、鐵路、電力、航空旅行;我們的生活從此改觀。接著是網路革命,為我們帶來運算能力、數據網路、前所未有的資訊獲取及通訊能力,我們的生活從此改觀。

 

如今我們正歷經另一波轉變:工業網路。它匯集了智慧型機器、進階分析技術、工作者的創造力,它是智慧與機器的結合;我們的生活將從此改觀。

 

在目前的崗位上,我可近距離觀察科技如何開始改變。在人類經濟及生活中扮演重要角色的工業部門、能源、航空、運輸、醫療保健。對經濟學家來說這非比尋常,且令人興奮不已,因為這是如工業革命般強大、甚至更強大的轉變;工業革命之前毫無經濟成長可言。

 

因此何謂工業網路?工業機器裝設越來越多的電子感應器,使它們看到、聽到、感覺到超出以往甚多的事物,產生驚人的資訊。接著日益成熟的分析技術對這些資訊進行過濾,提供我們全新且更有效率的操作機器方法。不僅是單一機器,也包括整列火車、飛機、甚至整個系統,例如電網、醫院。這是資產及系統的優化。當然,電子感應器已存在一段時間,但某些部份有所改變:感應器價格急劇下降,還有-由於雲端運算的發展,儲存及處理資料的成本大幅下降。

 

因此我們正邁向一個世界:協助我們工作的機器不僅聰明,甚至聰明絕頂。它們能自我感知,具預測性、反應性、社群性;噴射引擎、火車、燃氣渦輪、醫療設備可與彼此及人類完美聯繫。在這個世界裡,資訊發展出具身智慧,在我們需要時自動出現,不需費心尋找。我們已開始在整個工業系統中置入虛擬化技術、多核處理技術、基於雲端的先進通訊技術、軟體定義之新型機器基礎環境,使機器成為虛擬化軟體,使機器的軟體和硬體脫鉤,使我們得以遠距離、自動化地監測、管理及升級工業設備。

 

為何這些變革具有重要性?好,首先,這使我們得以轉向預防性、基於狀態的維修方式;意味著在機器壞掉之前先行修復,而非花時間定期維修。換句話說,這使我們趨近「零意外當機」目標,意味著再也不會出現停電、航班延誤等狀況。

 

因此我舉幾個例子,說明這些智慧型機器如何運作。有些例子或許看似微不足道,有些顯然意義重大,但所有例子都將造成深遠影響。

 

我們從航空業開始。目前,10%的航班取消及延誤源於臨時維修事件。某部分無預警地發生問題,導致全球航空業每年遭受80億美元的損失,更別提對我們的影響:壓力、不便、錯過會議、無助地坐在航站大樓裡。因此工業網路如何在此發揮作用?我們開發了一套預防性維修系統,可安裝於任何飛行器上。它可自我學習,預測人類操作員忽略的問題。飛行過程中飛機與地面技術人員保持聯繫,當它著陸時,他們已知是否有任何部分需要維修。單單在美國,像這樣的系統,每年可預防超過6萬次航班延誤及取消,幫助700萬乘客按時抵達目的地。

 

或以醫療行業為例。目前護士在每趟輪班中,平均得花21分鐘尋找醫療設備。看似微不足道,卻減少了照料病人的時間。德州休士頓的聖路加醫療中心,利用工業網路技術進行電子化監測,使病人、工作人員及醫療設備彼此連繫,使床位周轉時間減少將近一小時。如果你需要動手術,一小時彌足珍貴。這意味著可治療更多病人、拯救更多生命。另一所位於華盛頓州的醫療中心率先進行一項應用,使電腦斷層掃描及磁共振醫療影像於雲端進行分析,發展更優質、更低廉的分析方法。想像一位遭受嚴重創傷的病人,需接受數個領域的專家會診:神經科、心臟科、整形外科醫生。如果他們能即時且同時獲得掃描結果及影像,就能更迅速地提供更佳治療。因此這一切意味著更好的醫療成效,但也可提供實質經濟效益。只要目前的低效率情況減少1%,即可使全球醫療產業省下超過600億美元。這只是九牛一毛,相較於在永續基礎上建立可負擔的醫療體系。

 

類似進展亦發生於能源領域,包括可再生能源、裝設新型遠程監控及診斷裝置的風力發電廠,使風力渦輪機可彼此聯繫,根據風向同步調整葉片角度,使現今生產一度電的成本降低至不到5美分。十年前的成本是30美分,為現今的6倍。

 

類似例子還有很多,且將會迅速增加,因為目前工業資訊正以指數增長。到了2020年,其比例將佔數位資訊總量50%以上。

 

但這不僅關乎資訊,因此我換個話題,與各位分享這對我們日常進行的工作已造成何種影響。因為這新一波的創新帶來新型工具及應用,使我們可藉由更聰明、更迅速的方式合作。不僅使我們的工作更有效率,也更有價值。想像一位現場工程師抵達風力發電廠,藉由手持裝置得知哪個渦輪需要維修。她已帶來所有零件,因為問題事先經過診斷。如果她面臨意料之外的問題,同樣的手持裝置將使她得以與身處服務中心的同事通訊,使他們目睹現場情況,傳送使他們得以進行診斷的資料。他們可藉由視訊指導她,一步一步地,無論需藉由多複雜的程序才能修復機器,使其順利運轉。他們的互動過程被記錄下來,儲存在可搜尋的資料庫中。

 

我們在此暫停,思考一下,因為這是相當重要的關鍵。新一波創新正從根本上改變我們的工作方式,我知道許多人擔心這波創新對就業機會的可能影響。失業率已居高不下,人們總是擔心創新將損害就業機會。創新是顛覆性的,但我想強調兩件事。首先,我們已經歷農業機械化、工業自動化,就業率因此上升。因為基本上創新是成長的動力,它使產品更經濟實惠。它創造新需求、新工作。其次,有人擔心未來的職缺只適合工程師、數據科學家及其他高度專業人士。相信我,身為經濟學家,我也相當恐懼。但不妨思考一下:正如孩童輕易就能瞭解如何操作iPad,因此新一代的移動式及直覺式工業應用,將使任何技術程度的工作者生活變得更加容易。未來的工作者將更像鋼鐵人,而非《摩登時代》的查理.卓別林。無疑地,新型態高技術工作將因此誕生:瞭解機器及數據的機械數位工程師、瞭解自身產業及分析技術的經理,可重新組織產業,使這些技術發揮最大效益。

 

但現在我們退一步,縱觀整個局面。有人認為現今的創新僅在於社群媒體和愚蠢的遊戲,與工業革命的變革力量相距甚遠。他們說,所有促進成長的創新已成往事。每當聽見這種論點,我忍不住想:即使在石器時代,肯定也有一群洞穴人,某天坐在營火旁,看起來相當暴躁,不以為然地看著另一群洞穴人將石製輪子在山坡上來回滾動,然後對彼此說:「嗯,輪子這玩意兒,沒錯,很酷的玩具,但比起火來根本沒啥屁用,偉大的發現早已結束。」(笑聲)

 

這一波技術革命與我們見過的任何創新一樣鼓舞人心、帶來變革;人類的創造力及創新能力總是推動我們前進。它們創造了工作、提高了生活水準,使我們的生活更健康、更有價值。這一波正開始席捲工業界的創新浪潮亦是如此。單單在美國,工業網路可使平均收入提高25%至40%,在未來15年當中,將帶來久違的經濟成長,使全球GDP增加10至15兆美元,相當於美國目前經濟總量。

 

但這尚未成定局,我們僅處於這場變革的起點,途中存在需突破的困境、需克服的障礙。我們需要投資新技術,我們需要調整組織及管理措施,我們需要健全的網路安全策略,保護敏感資訊及智慧財產,避免關鍵基礎設施遭受網路攻擊。教育系統也需要改進,確保學生獲得相應技能。這並非易事,但絕對值得。我們面臨的經濟挑戰十分艱辛,但當我走進工廠,看見人類與智慧型機器如何緊密聯繫;我看見它在醫院、機場、發電廠造成的改變。我不僅樂觀,更充滿期待。新一波技術革命已降臨。因此思考未來-它很快就會到來。

 

謝謝。

 

(掌聲)

 

以下為系統擷取之英文原文

About this Talk

Everyone's talking about the "Internet of Things," but what exactly does that mean for our future? In this thoughtful talk, economist Marco Annunziata looks at how technology is transforming the industrial sector, creating machines that can see, feel, sense and react — so they can be operated far more efficiently. Think: airplane parts that send an alert when they need to be serviced, or wind turbines that communicate with one another to generate more electricity. It's a future with exciting implications for us all.

About the Speaker

The Chief Economist at General Electric, Marco Annunziata is a financial virtuoso with a passion for technology. Full Bio

Transcript

And he was right, of course. So today, I'm here to ask you to think of how the future is happening now. Over the past 200 years, the world has experienced two major waves of innovation. First, the Industrial Revolution brought us machines and factories, railways, electricity, air travel, and our lives have never been the same. Then the Internet revolution brought us computing power, data networks, unprecedented access to information and communication, and our lives have never been the same.

Now we are experiencing another metamorphic change: the industrial Internet. It brings together intelligent machines, advanced analytics, and the creativity of people at work. It's the marriage of minds and machines. And our lives will never be the same.

In my current role, I see up close how technology is beginning to transform industrial sectors that play a huge role in our economy and in our lives: energy, aviation, transportation, health care. For an economist, this is highly unusual, and it's extremely exciting, because this is a transformation as powerful as the Industrial Revolution and more, and before the Industrial Revolution, there was no economic growth to speak of.

So what is this industrial Internet? Industrial machines are being equipped with a growing number of electronic sensors that allow them to see, hear, feel a lot more than ever before, generating prodigious amounts of data. Increasingly sophisticated analytics then sift through the data, providing insights that allow us to operate the machines in entirely new ways, a lot more efficiently. And not just individual machines, but fleets of locomotives, airplanes, entire systems like power grids, hospitals. It is asset optimization and system optimization. Of course, electronic sensors have been around for some time, but something has changed: a sharp decline in the cost of sensors and, thanks to advances in cloud computing, a rapid decrease in the cost of storing and processing data.

So we are moving to a world where the machines we work with are not just intelligent; they are brilliant. They are self-aware, they are predictive, reactive and social. It's jet engines, locomotives, gas turbines, medical devices, communicating seamlessly with each other and with us. It's a world where information itself becomes intelligent and comes to us automatically when we need it without having to look for it. We are beginning to deploy throughout the industrial system embedded virtualization, multi-core processor technology, advanced cloud-based communications, a new software-defined machine infrastructure which allows machine functionality to become virtualized in software, decoupling machine software from hardware, and allowing us to remotely and automatically monitor, manage and upgrade industrial assets.

Why does any of this matter at all? Well first of all, it's already allowing us to shift towards preventive, condition-based maintenance, which means fixing machines just before they break, without wasting time servicing them on a fixed schedule. And this, in turn, is pushing us towards zero unplanned downtime, which means there will be no more power outages, no more flight delays.

So let me give you a few examples of how these brilliant machines work, and some of the examples may seem trivial, some are clearly more profound, but all of them are going to have a very powerful impact.

Let's start with aviation. Today, 10 percent of all flights cancellations and delays are due to unscheduled maintenance events. Something goes wrong unexpectedly. This results in eight billion dollars in costs for the airline industry globally every year, not to mention the impact on all of us: stress, inconvenience, missed meetings as we sit helplessly in an airport terminal. So how can the industrial Internet help here? We've developed a preventive maintenance system which can be installed on any aircraft. It's self-learning and able to predict issues that a human operator would miss. The aircraft, while in flight, will communicate with technicians on the ground. By the time it lands, they will already know if anything needs to be serviced. Just in the U.S., a system like this can prevent over 60,000 delays and cancellations every year, helping seven million passengers get to their destinations on time.

Or take healthcare. Today, nurses spend an average of 21 minutes per shift looking for medical equipment. That seems trivial, but it's less time spent caring for patients. St. Luke's Medical Center in Houston, Texas, which has deployed industrial Internet technology to electronically monitor and connect patients, staff and medical equipment, has reduced bed turnaround times by nearly one hour. If you need surgery, one hour matters. It means more patients can be treated, more lives can be saved. Another medical center, in Washington state, is piloting an application that allows medical images from city scanners and MRIs to be analyzed in the cloud, developing better analytics at a lower cost. Imagine a patient who has suffered a severe trauma, and needs the attention of several specialists: a neurologist, a cardiologist, an orthopedic surgeon. If all of them can have instantaneous and simultaneous access to scans and images as they are taken, they will be able to deliver better healthcare faster. So all of thi translates into better health outcomes, but it can also deliver substantial economic benefits. Just a one-percent reduction in existing inefficiencies could yield savings of over 60 billion dollars to the healthcare industry worldwide, and that is just a drop in the sea compared to what we need to do to make healthcare affordable on a sustainable basis.

Similar advances are happening in energy, including renewable energy. Wind farms equipped with new remote monitorings and diagnostics that allow wind turbines to talk to each other and adjust the pitch of their blades in a coordinated way, depending on how the wind is blowing, can now produce electricity at a cost of less than five cents per kilowatt/hour. Ten years ago, that cost was 30 cents, six times as much.

The list goes on, and it will grow fast, because industrial data are now growing exponentially. By 2020, they will account for over 50 percent of all digital information.

But this is not just about data, so let me switch gears and tell you how this is impacting already the jobs we do every day, because this new wave of innovation is bringing about new tools and applications that will allow us to collaborate in a smarter and faster way, making our jobs not just more efficient but more rewarding. Imagine a field engineer arriving at the wind farm with a handheld device telling her which turbines need servicing. She already has all the spare parts, because the problems were diagnosed in advanced. And if she faces an unexpected issue, the same handheld device will allow her to communicate with colleagues at the service center, let them see what she sees, transmit data that they can run through diagnostics, and they can stream videos that will guide her, step by step, through whatever complex procedure is needed to get the machines back up and running. And their interaction gets documented and stored in a searchable database.

Let's stop and think about this for a minute, because this is a very important point. This new wave of innovation is fundamentally changing the way we work. And I know that many of you will be concerned about the impact that innovation might have on jobs. Unemployment is already high, and there is always a fear that innovation will destroy jobs. And innovation is disruptive. But let me stress two things here. First, we've already lived through mechanization of agriculture, automation of industry, and employment has gone up, because innovation is fundamentally about growth. It makes products more affordable. It creates new demand, new jobs. Second, there is a concern that in the future, there will only be room for engineers, data scientists, and other highly-specialized workers. And believe me, as an economist, I am also scared. But think about it: Just as a child can easily figure out how to operate an iPad, so a new generation of mobile and intuitive industrial applications will make life easier for workers of all skill levels. The worker of the future will be more like Iron Man than the Charlie Chaplin of "Modern Times." And to be sure, new high-skilled jobs will be created: mechanical digital engineers who understand both the machines and the data; managers who understand their industry and the analytics and can reorganize the business to take full advantage of the technology.

But now let's take a step back. Let's look at the big picture. There are people who argue that today's innovation is all about social media and silly games, with nowhere near the transformational power of the Industrial Revolution. They say that all the growth-enhancing innovations are behind us. And every time I hear this, I can't help thinking that even back in the Stone Age, there must have been a group of cavemen sitting around a fire one day looking very grumpy, and looking disapprovingly at another group of cavemen rolling a stone wheel up and down a hill, and saying to each other, "Yeah, this wheel thing, cool toy, sure, but compared to fire, it will have no impact. The big discoveries are all behind us." (Laughter)

This technological revolution is as inspiring and transformational as anything we have ever seen. Human creativity and innovation have always propelled us forward. They've created jobs. They've raised living standards. They've made our lives healthier and more rewarding. And the new wave of innovation which is beginning to sweep through industry is no different. In the U.S. alone, the industrial Internet could raise average income by 25 to 40 percent over the next 15 years, boosting growth to rates we haven't seen in a long time, and adding between 10 and 15 trillion dollars to global GDP. That is the size of the entire U.S. economy today.

But this is not a foregone conclusion. We are just at the beginning of this transformation, and there will be barriers to break, obstacles to overcome. We will need to invest in the new technologies. We will need to adapt organizations and managerial practices. We will need a robust cybersecurity approach that protects sensitive information and intellectual property and safeguards critical infrastructure from cyberattacks. And the education system will need to evolve to ensure students are equipped with the right skills. It's not going to be easy, but it is going to be worth it. The economic challenges facing us are hard, but when I walk the factory floor, and I see how humans and brilliant machines are becoming interconnected, and I see the difference this makes in a hospital, in an airport, in a power generation plant, I'm not just optimistic, I'm enthusiastic. This new technological revolution is upon us.

So think about the future — it will be here soon enough.

Thank you.

 

 

 

 


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