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Rainer Strack 談2030年的勞動力危機-以及如何著手解決

Rainer Strack: The workforce crisis of 2030 -- and how to start solving it now

 

Photo of three lions hunting on the Serengeti.

講者:Rainer Strack

2014年10月攝於TED@BCG Berlin

 

翻譯:洪曉慧

編輯:朱學恒

簡繁轉換:洪曉慧

後制:洪曉慧

字幕影片後制:謝旻均

 

影片請按此下載

MAC及手持裝置版本請按此下載

閱讀中文字幕純文字版本

 

關於這場演講

聽起來或許違反直覺,但到了2030年,世上許多最大的經濟體擁有的職缺將超過其成年公民的數量。在這場資訊豐富、引人入勝的演講中,人力資源專家Rainer Strack建議各國應跨國尋找有意願赴海外工作的求職者。但前提是這些國家必須從改變本身的企業文化做起。

 

關於Rainer Strack

BCG(波士頓顧問集團)的Rainer Strack倡導企業採取「人力資源優勢」-因為以員工為本的思維有助於企業的永續發展。

 

為什麼要聽他演講

Rainer Strack是BCG(波士頓顧問集團)資深合夥人兼董事總經理,也是人力資源議題的全球領導者。他寫過許多關於人力資源的文章,如2005年的人力資源控制與以人為本的企業,2008年的人口風險管理與策略性人力資源規劃,均發表於《哈佛商業評論》中。他於2014年發表了三篇重要的BCG報告,討論《全球勞動力危機》、《解析全球人才》和《創造人力資源優勢》等議題。他是世界經濟論壇全球議程理事會成員,主管人才流動,並於達沃斯召開的會議中兩次提出這個議題。Strack擁有物理碩士、商業碩士學位,並取得德國亞琛工業大學物理博士學位。2008年,他獲頒德國韋頓/赫德克大學榮譽教授。

 

Rainer Strack的英語網上資料

bcg.com

 

[TED科技‧娛樂‧設計]

已有中譯字幕的TED影片目錄(繁體)(簡體)。請注意繁簡目錄是不一樣的。

 

Rainer Strack 談2030年的勞動力危機-以及如何著手解決

 

2014對我而言是十分特殊的一年。20年的顧問生涯、20年的婚姻經歷,還有我下個月即將邁入五十大關。這是指我1964年出生於德國一個小鎮,那是11月一個灰濛濛的日子。我已過了預產期,醫院的產房忙得焦頭爛額,因為許多嬰兒在11月那個灰濛濛的日子出生。事實上1964年是德國有史以來出生率最高的一年,新生兒超過130萬人,前一年只有60萬出頭,大約只有我出生那年的一半。

 

你們所見的是德國的年齡金字塔,頂端那個小黑點就是我。(笑聲)(掌聲)紅色部分代表潛在工齡人口,即15歲以上、65歲以下人口。事實上我只對這塊紅色區域感興趣。

 

現在我們做個簡單的模擬,觀察未來幾年這個年齡結構將如何發展。如你們所見,這個尖峰向右移動。我與許多其他嬰兒潮人口將在2030年退休。順帶一提,預測這塊紅色區域不需對出生率進行任何預估,這塊紅色區域也就是2030年潛在工齡人口,現在已固定下來,除非出現更高的遷移率。如果你比較2030年與2014年的紅色區域,2030年的小得多。

 

因此在我展示世上其他地方的情況之前,這對德國來說意味著什麼?因此從這張圖表中我們知道,勞動力供給,也就是提供勞動力的人在德國將會減少,顯著減少。那麼勞動力需求呢?這就是其中的微妙之處。如你們所知,諮詢顧問對任何問題最常給出的答案是「看情況」,所以我會說「看情況」。我們不想預測未來,推測成分太高,我們採用另一種方式。我們觀察過去20年德國的GDP(國內生產毛額)和生產力增長情況,計算出以下情形:如果德國希望GDP和生產力持續增長,我們可直接計算出德國需要多少人力來支援這種增長,就是這條綠線:勞動力需求。因此德國很快就會出現人才嚴重短缺的情形,缺少了800萬人,超出現有勞動力的20%。非常大的數目,相當大。我們計算了幾種情形情況,總是如此。

 

好,為了填補這個缺口,德國必須大幅增加外來人口,使更多女性加入勞動行列,提高退休年齡。順帶一提,我們今年才降低了退休年齡。同時採取這些措施。如果德國無法做到這一點,就會陷入停滯狀態,無法獲得任何增長。為什麼?因為沒有能產生這種增長的勞動力,企業將前往別處尋找人才,但從哪裡尋找?

 

我們模擬了世上15個最大經濟體的勞動力供給和需求,它們的GDP總和超過全球70%。到了2020年,整體情況將類似這樣。藍色表示勞動力過剩,紅色表示勞動力短缺,灰色表示處於邊緣的國家。因此到了2020年,我們仍可看見某些國家勞動力過剩,例如義大利、法國、美國。但這個情況在2030年將發生劇烈變化。到了2030年,最大經濟體多半都將面臨全球性勞動力危機,包括金磚四國中的三國,曾經實施一胎化政策的中國也將面臨這個問題,巴西和俄羅斯也一樣。

 

好,坦白說,實際情況更加嚴峻。你們在這裡所見的是平均數,我們將它去平均化,區分成不同的勞動技能程度,我們發現的是高技能勞動力缺口將會更大,低技能勞動力將出現部分剩餘。因此在整體勞動力缺乏的情況下,我們未來將面臨勞動技能嚴重失衡的情況。這意味著政府和企業在技能的教育、認證和培訓中將面臨巨大挑戰。

 

好,我們接下來研究的是機器人、自動化和科技。科技是否能改變這個情況並提高生產力?好,簡要的答案是,我們的數字已包括科技所驅動的大幅度生產力增長,詳細的答案如下,我們再次以德國為例。德國人的生產力在世界上具有一定的聲譽,90年代我在波士頓辦公室工作了將近兩年,當我離開時,一位資深合夥人對我說:「多替我找些像這樣的德國人,他們工作起來簡直像機器。」(笑聲)當時是1998年,16年後,你們或許會倒過來說:「多替我找些像這樣的機器,它們工作起來簡直像德國人。」(笑聲)(掌聲)

 

科技將取代許多工作,一般的工作,不僅是生產業,甚至白領階級也面臨危機,可能被機器人、人工智慧、龐大資訊或自動化取代。因此關鍵問題並非在於科技是否會取代某些工作,而是何時取代、取代速度多快、取代到何種程度?換句話說,科技是否能幫助我們解決全球性勞動力危機?可以說能,也可以說不能,這是「看情況」的升級版本。(笑聲)

 

以汽車工業為例,因為其中超過40%的工作已由工業機器人取代,自動化也已經實施。1980年電子零件所佔的汽車生產成本不到10%,如今這個比例已超過30%;到了2030年,這個比例將增加到超過50%。這些新的電子零件和應用需要新的勞動技能,並創造許多新工作,例如認知系統工程師負責優化駕駛者與電子系統之間的互動,1980年時不曾有人想過可能出現這種工作。事實上參與汽車生產的總人數在過去幾十年當中變化相當微小,即使機器人和自動化出現。

 

因此這意味著什麼?確實,科技能取代許多工作,但我們也將看見許多新工作和新技能出現,這意味著科技將使勞動技能失衡的情況更加嚴重。這種去平均化顯示了政府和企業面臨的關鍵性挑戰。

 

因此人,尤其是高技能人才,在未來十年當中將成為主角。如果他們是稀有資源,我們必須更加瞭解他們。他們真的願意前往海外工作嗎?他們偏好什麼工作?

 

為了尋找答案,我們今年做了一項全球調查,對像是來自189個國家超過20萬名求職者。遷移當然是填補勞動力缺口的關鍵措施,至少以短期來說。因此我們以流動性來觀察20萬名求職者,當中超過60%願意前往海外工作。在我看來這個比例高得驚人,如果只觀察21至30歲之間的求職者,這個比例甚至更高。如果細分成國家來看,是的,流動性確實存在,但僅限於部分地區。流動性最低的國家是俄羅斯、德國和美國。那麼這些人想去哪裡工作?排名第七的國家是澳大利亞,28%的人有意願前往,然後是法國、瑞士、德國、加拿大、英國,世界範圍內的首選是美國。

 

好,這20萬人偏好什麼工作?也就是說他們在意什麼?在26個選項中,薪水只排在第八名,前四名都跟文化有關,第四名:與上司保持良好關係;第三名:工作與生活能達成良好平衡;第二名,與同事保持良好關係。全世界群眾最在意的是能因工作而獲得讚賞,也就是說,我是否能獲得讚賞?不僅是每年一次的年終獎金,而是每天都能獲得讚賞。如今,全球性勞動力危機變得相當個人化,人們尋求他人的認可。我們不都是藉由工作獲得認可嗎?

 

好,我來做個總結。我們將面臨全球性勞動力危機,其中包括整體性勞動力缺乏,加上嚴重的勞動技能失衡,以及巨大的文化挑戰。全球性勞動力危機已迫在眉睫,現在我們正處於一個轉捩點,因此我們、政府和企業能做什麼?每一家企業以及每一個國家都需要人力資源策略,並立刻付諸實行。人力資源策略包括四個部分。一、計畫如何預測不同工作和技能的供給與需求;勞動力計畫將變得比財務計畫重要。二、計畫如何吸引優秀人才:Y世代、女性,還有退休人士。三、計畫如何教育及培訓他們;我們面臨巨大的培訓挑戰。四、如何留住最優秀的人才;換句話說,如何瞭解讚賞及人際關係的文化。

 

然而,一個潛在的關鍵因素是改變我們的態度。員工是資源、是資產,不是開銷、不是人頭、不是機器,甚至不是德國人。

 

謝謝。(掌聲)

 

以下為系統擷取之英文原文

About this Talk

It sounds counterintuitive, but by 2030, many of the world's largest economies will have more jobs than adult citizens to do those jobs. In this data-filled — and quite charming — talk, human resources expert Rainer Strack suggests that countries ought to look across borders for mobile and willing job seekers. But to do that, they need to start by changing the culture in their businesses.

About the Speaker

BCG's Rainer Strack advocates for companies to adopt a "people advantage" — because employee-centered thinking can go a long way. Full bio

Transcript

2014 is a very special year for me: 20 years as a consultant, 20 years of marriage, and I'm turning 50 in one month. That means I was born in 1964 in a small town in Germany.

It was a gray November day, and I was overdue. The hospital's maternity ward was really stressed out because a lot of babies were born on this gray November day. As a matter of fact, 1964 was the year with the highest birth rate ever in Germany: more than 1.3 million. Last year, we just hit over 600,000, so half of my number.

What you can see here is the German age pyramid, and there, the small black point at the top, that's me. (Laughter) (Applause) In red, you can see the potential working-age population, so people over 15 and under 65, and I'm actually only interested in this red area.

Now, let's do a simple simulation of how this age structure will develop over the next couple of years. As you can see, the peak is moving to the right, and I, with many other baby boomers, will retire in 2030. By the way, I don't need any forecasts of birth rates for predicting this red area. The red area, so the potential working-age population in 2030, is already set in stone today, except for much higher migration rates. And if you compare this red area in 2030 with the red area in 2014, it is much, much smaller.

So before I show you the rest of the world, what does this mean for Germany? So what we know from this picture is that the labor supply, so people who provide labor, will go down in Germany, and will go down significantly. Now, what about labor demand? That's where it gets tricky. As you might know, the consultant's favorite answer to any question is, "It depends." So I would say it depends. We didn't want to forecast the future. Highly speculative. We did something else. We looked at the GDP and productivity growth of Germany over the last 20 years, and calculated the following scenario: if Germany wants to continue this GDP and productivity growth, we could directly calculate how many people Germany would need to support this growth. And this is the green line: labor demand. So Germany will run into a major talent shortage very quickly. Eight million people are missing, which is more than 20 percent of our current workforce, so big numbers, really big numbers. And we calculated several scenarios, and the picture always looked like this.

Now, to close the gap, Germany has to significantly increase migration, get many more women in the workforce, increase retirement age — by the way, we just lowered it this year — and all these measures at once. If Germany fails here, Germany will stagnate. We won't grow anymore. Why? Because the workers are not there who can generate this growth. And companies will look for talents somewhere else. But where?

Now, we simulated labor supply and labor demand for the largest 15 economies in the world, representing more than 70 percent of world GDP, and the overall picture looks like this by 2020. Blue indicates a labor surplus, red indicates a labor shortfall, and gray are those countries which are borderline. So by 2020, we still see a labor surplus in some countries, like Italy, France, the U.S., but this picture will change dramatically by 2030. By 2030, we will face a global workforce crisis in most of our largest economies, including three out of the four BRIC countries. China, with its former one-child policy, will be hit, as well as Brazil and Russia.

Now, to tell the truth, in reality, the situation will be even more challenging. What you can see here are average numbers. We de-averaged them and broke them down into different skill levels, and what we found were even higher shortfalls for high-skilled people and a partial surplus for low-skilled workers. So on top of an overall labor shortage, we will face a big skill mismatch in the future, and this means huge challenges in terms of education, qualification, upskilling for governments and companies.

Now, the next thing we looked into was robots, automation, technology. Will technology change this picture and boost productivity? Now, the short answer would be that our numbers already include a significant growth in productivity driven by technology. A long answer would go like this. Let's take Germany again. The Germans have a certain reputation in the world when it comes to productivity. In the '90s, I worked in our Boston office for almost two years, and when I left, an old senior partner told me, literally, "Send me more of these Germans, they work like machines." (Laughter) That was 1998. Sixteen years later, you'd probably say the opposite. "Send me more of these machines. They work like Germans." (Laughter) (Applause)

Technology will replace a lot of jobs, regular jobs. Not only in the production industry, but even office workers are in jeopardy and might be replaced by robots, artificial intelligence, big data, or automation. So the key question is not if technology replaces some of these jobs, but when, how fast, and to what extent? Or in other words, will technology help us to solve this global workforce crisis? Yes and no. This is a more sophisticated version of "it depends." (Laughter)

Let's take the automotive industry as an example, because there, more than 40 percent of industrial robots are already working and automation has already taken place. In 1980, less than 10 percent of the production cost of a car was caused by electronic parts. Today, this number is more than 30 percent and it will grow to more than 50 percent by 2030. And these new electronic parts and applications require new skills and have created a lot of new jobs, like the cognitive systems engineer who optimizes the interaction between driver and electronic system. In 1980, no one had the slightest clue that such a job would ever exist. As a matter of fact, the overall number of people involved in the production of a car has only changed slightly in the last decades, in spite of robots and automation.

So what does this mean? Yes, technology will replace a lot of jobs, but we will also see a lot of new jobs and new skills on the horizon, and that means technology will worsen our overall skill mismatch. And this kind of de-averaging reveals the crucial challenge for governments and businesses.

So people, high-skilled people, talents, will be the big thing in the next decade. If they are the scarce resource, we have to understand them much better. Are they actually willing to work abroad? What are their job preferences?

To find out, this year we conducted a global survey among more than 200,000 job seekers from 189 countries. Migration is certainly one key measure to close a gap, at least in the short term, so we asked about mobility. More than 60 percent of these 200,000 job seekers are willing to work abroad. For me, a surprisingly high number. If you look at the employees aged 21 to 30, this number is even higher. If you split this number up by country, yes, the world is mobile, but only partly. The least mobile countries are Russia, Germany and the U.S. Now where would these people like to move? Number seven is Australia, where 28 percent could imagine moving. Then France, Switzerland, Germany, Canada, U.K., and the top choice worldwide is the U.S.

Now, what are the job preferences of these 200,000 people? So, what are they looking for? Out of a list of 26 topics, salary is only number eight. The top four topics are all around culture. Number four, having a great relationship with the boss; three, enjoying a great work-life balance; two, having a great relationship with colleagues; and the top priority worldwide is being appreciated for your work. So, do I get a thank you? Not only once a year with the annual bonus payment, but every day. And now, our global workforce crisis becomes very personal. People are looking for recognition. Aren't we all looking for recognition in our jobs?

Now, let me connect the dots. We will face a global workforce crisis which consists of an overall labor shortage plus a huge skill mismatch, plus a big cultural challenge. And this global workforce crisis is approaching very fast. Right now, we are just at the turning point. So what can we, what can governments, what can companies do? Every company, but also every country, needs a people strategy, and to act on it immediately, and such a people strategy consists of four parts. Number one, a plan for how to forecast supply and demand for different jobs and different skills. Workforce planning will become more important than financial planning. Two, a plan for how to attract great people: generation Y, women, but also retirees. Three, a plan for how to educate and upskill them. There's a huge upskilling challenge ahead of us. And four, for how to retain the best people, or in other words, how to realize an appreciation and relationship culture.

However, one crucial underlying factor is to change our attitudes. Employees are resources, are assets, not costs, not head counts, not machines, not even the Germans.

Thank you.

(Applause)


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