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陸克文談中國與美國注定要發生衝突嗎?

Kevin Rudd: Are China and the US doomed to conflict?

 

Photo of three lions hunting on the Serengeti.

講者:陸克文

2015年3月攝於TED2015

 

翻譯:洪曉慧

編輯:朱學恆

簡繁轉換:洪曉慧

後製:洪曉慧

字幕影片後制:謝旻均

 

影片請按此下載

MAC及手持裝置版本請按此下載

閱讀中文字幕純文字版本

 

關於這場演講

前澳洲總理陸克文研究中國文化多年,擁有以獨特觀點觀察過去數十年中國力量崛起的優勢。他詢問:中國日益增長的野心是否將無法避免地引發與其他大國的衝突-並提出替代方案。

 

關於Kevin Rudd

研究「中國全球關係未來的可能性」過程中,澳洲前總理陸克文得出不樂觀的結論:衝突迫在眉睫。

 

為什麼要聽他演講

憑藉對中國文化、語言和歷史的深入瞭解(陸克文是哈佛大學貝爾弗中心資深研究員),陸克文和他的同事研究美中關係的替代進程,以避免看似必然的對立。陸克文於全球金融危機期間擔任澳洲總理(亦為G20創始者之一),協助澳洲走出經濟衰退,國際貨幣基金組織稱讚他使用的經濟刺激策略堪稱會員國典範。陸克文也是亞洲協會政策研究所所長,這是專門研究亞洲事務的智庫。

 

2015年3月,陸克文發表了《習近平治下中美關係的可能未來》,這是一系列的三場演講,著眼於美國與中國的價值觀、視角、利益及戰略意圖,以及這一切對美中關係未來可能性的影響。

 

Kevin Rudd的英語網上資料

kevinrudd.com

asiasociety.org

 

[TED科技‧娛樂‧設計]

已有中譯字幕的TED影片目錄(繁體)(簡體)。請注意繁簡目錄是不一樣的。

 

陸克文談中國與美國注定要發生衝突嗎?

 

大家好,我叫凱文,我來自澳洲,我是來幫忙的。(笑聲)

 

今晚我想談一個關於兩個城市的故事,其中一個城市叫華盛頓,另一個叫北京。因為這兩個首都如何塑造它們的未來,以及美國和中國的未來,影響的不僅是這兩個國家,也影響了我們所有人。也許藉由許多我們不曾想過的方式:我們呼吸的空氣、我們飲用的水、我們食用的魚、我們海洋的品質、我們未來使用的語言、我們擁有的工作、我們選擇的政治體系,當然,還有戰爭與和平這個重大問題。

 

看見那個傢伙嗎?他是法國人,他名叫拿破崙。幾百年前,他發表了這個驚人的預測:「中國是沉睡的獅子,當她醒來後世界將為之震撼。」拿破崙犯過一些錯,但這一點毫無疑問是正確的。因為如今中國不僅是醒了,中國已站了起來,邁出腳步。留給我們的問題是:中國將走向何方?我們如何與這個21世紀的巨人並肩前行?你開始注意一些令你備受衝擊的數據,無論以何種衡量方式-PPP(購買力平價指數)、市場匯率等-它顯示中國將在未來十年內成為世上最大的經濟體。他們已經是世上最大的貿易國、最大的出口國、最大的生產製造國,也是世上碳排放量最大的國家;美國位居第二。因此如果中國真的成為世上最大的經濟體,思考一下:這將是史上第一次,自從這個傢伙-喬治三世,他跟拿破崙的關係不太好-登上英國國王寶座以來,世上即將形成的最大經濟體,既非英語系國家,亦非西方國家,也不是自由民主國家。

 

如果你不認為這將對世界未來的發展造成影響,我個人認為你一定是吸了什麼東西。這不是指你來自科羅拉多州(美國第一個大麻合法化的州)。簡言之,我們今晚的問題是如何理解這場巨變,我認為這是21世紀前半期最大的改變,它影響了許多方面。這將影響世界的核心,這場變動悄無聲息、持續不斷地發生,以某種無法偵測的方式發生,我們卻將注意力放在烏克蘭怎麼了、中東怎麼了、ISIS恐怖組織怎麼了、ISIL基地組織怎麼了。

 

我們未來的經濟會如何?這是一場緩慢而無聲的革命,伴隨巨大改變而來的是巨大的挑戰,這個巨大挑戰就是:這兩個大國,中國和美國,順帶一提,美國在中文裡的意思是「美麗的國家」。思考一下,這是中國在一百多年前替美國取的名字,這兩種偉大文明,這兩個偉大國家是否能為他們本身及世界開創共同的未來?簡言之,我們是否能開創一個和平共榮的未來?或我們將面臨戰爭或和平的巨大挑戰?

 

我有15分鐘時間闡述「戰爭或和平」,這比他們給這個人寫《戰爭與和平》這本書的時間稍微短了些。人們問我,為何一個在澳洲鄉下長大的孩子會對學習中文產生興趣?有兩個原因,這是第一個。這是名叫貝琪的牛,貝琪是其中一隻伴隨我在澳洲鄉下農場長大的乳牛。看見這雙手嗎?它們不適合務農,因此我很早就發現在農場工作不適合我,中國則是能讓我脫離澳洲農場生活的安全途徑。這是第二個原因。這是我母親,有人曾經聆聽母親的建議嗎?有人曾經聽從母親的建議嗎?我很少這麼做,但母親給我的建議是,某天她遞給我一張報紙,標題寫著《我們將經歷巨大的改變》,這個改變就是中國進入聯合國。當時是1971年,我剛滿14歲,她給我看了這個標題,她說:「理解及學習這一切,因為這會影響你的未來。」因此身為歷史學優等生,我決定我最該做的事就是學習中文。

 

學習中文很棒的一點就是你的中文老師會給你取個新名字,因此他們給我這個名字:「克」,意思是克服、征服;「文」,這個字代表文學或藝術。「克文」,經典文化征服者。有人名叫「凱文(Kevin)」嗎?從「凱文」到「經典文化征服者」確實是一大提升。我被叫「凱文」一輩子了,你是否也被叫「凱文」一輩子?你是否比較喜歡被叫成「經典文化征服者」?因此之後我加入澳大利亞外交部,但這裡使我的驕傲-獲得驕傲前總不免先摔一跤。當時我在北京的大使館,準備陪我們的大使前往人民大會堂,他要求我為他在人民大會堂的第一次會議做翻譯,因此我來到現場。如果你參加過中國的會議,就知道現場的會議桌擺放成馬蹄型。馬蹄型會議桌頂端坐著非常顯赫的大人物,沿桌而下坐著不那麼顯赫的大人物,以及一些像我一樣的小角色。然後大使以一句不雅的話開場,他說:「澳中目前正享受前所未見的親密關係。」我暗想:「這聽起來既笨拙又奇怪,我不妨修飾一下。」請把這句話記入筆記:「千萬別這麼做。」我們應採用更優雅、更文雅的說法,因此我的翻譯如下:「澳中關係最近處於高潮關係。」房間另一端是長久的沉默,你可以看見坐在馬蹄型會議桌頂端的大人物臉色瞬間發白,位於馬蹄型會議桌末端的小角色發出無法遏抑的大笑,因為當我修飾大使的話語:「澳中目前正享受前所未見的親密關係。」事實上我所說的是:「澳中正體驗絕妙的性高潮。」(笑聲)

 

那是我最後一次被要求做翻譯,但這個小故事蘊含著智慧,那就是當你認為自己瞭解這個擁有五千年歷史的精深文化,總有新的知識值得學習。歷史總是與我們背道而馳,當談到美國與中國攜手打造共同的未來時。看見上面這個人嗎?他不是中國人,也不是美國人,他是希臘人,名叫修昔底德。他寫了《伯羅奔尼撒戰爭史》,他對雅典和斯巴達做了卓越的觀察:「正是雅典的崛起及斯巴達因此引發的恐懼使戰爭無法避免。」因此有了所謂「修昔底德陷阱」的說法。這個傢伙,不是美國人,也不是希臘人,他是中國人。他名叫孫子,他寫了《孫子兵法》。如果看底下那段很長的敘述:「攻其不備,出其不意。」對中美關係來說似乎不是好現象。這傢伙是美國人,名叫葛雷厄姆.艾利森,事實上他是位於波士頓的甘迺迪政府學院老師,目前他正在進行一個研究項目,那就是:「在崛起的力量與既有的強大力量之間,所謂『戰爭無法避免』的修昔底德陷阱是否適用於未來的中美關係?」這是個核心問題,葛雷厄姆所做的是研究自西元1500年以來歷史上15個案例,研究前例的情況,15個案例中有11個都以慘烈的戰爭結束。

 

你或許會說,「但是凱文-或經典文化征服者-那已成往事,我們現在生活在一個互相依賴的全球化世界,不可能再發生這種情形。」你猜如何?經濟歷史學家告訴我們,事實上我們達到經濟整合及全球化最鼎盛的時期是1914年,就在第一次世界大戰之前,這是發人深省的史鑑。因此如果我們思考這個重要問題:中國如何思考、感受及定位自己與美國的關係,美國亦然,我們如何獲得使這兩個國家和文明有機會共同合作的底線?我先談這一點:中國對美國和其他西方國家的觀點。第一,中國認為在過去一百年的歷史中飽受西方國家的折辱。從鴉片戰爭開始之後,西方列強瓜分中國,因此20至30年代像這樣的標語出現在上海街頭:「狗與華人不得入內」。如果你是中國人,在自己的國家看見這種標語會有什麼感受?

 

中國相信並感受到如同1919年巴黎和會的情況:當德國殖民地歸還給世上所有國家時,德國在中國的殖民地如何?它們全給了日本。當日本在1930年代侵略中國,全世界都袖手旁觀,冷漠以對。此外,更重要的是,中國一直認為美國和西方國家不接受中國政治體系的正當性,因為它與我們這些自由民主國家截然不同。中國也堅信美國直到今天仍意圖破壞他們的政治體系,中國也堅信它被美國的盟友和圍繞在領土四周的美國戰略夥伴制約。此外,中國人打心底覺得我們這些西方國家太過傲慢,因為我們並未意識到本身體系、政治與經濟上的問題,卻對他人指手畫腳。中國也認為事實上我們西方國家應為我們眾多的偽善行為感到羞愧。當然,在國際關係中一個巴掌是拍不響的,其中也牽涉到另一個國家,那就是美國。那麼美國如何回應這些觀點?美國一一作出回應。對於美國是否制約中國的問題,他們說:「不,看看蘇聯的歷史,那才叫制約。」相反地,美國和西方國家歡迎中國進軍全球經濟,更重要的是歡迎他們加入世界貿易組織。美國和西方國家說,中國在智慧財產權問題上作假,並向美國和跨國公司發動網路攻擊。此外,美國說中國政治體系基本上就是錯誤的,因為它們與美國和西方國家崇尚的人權、民主、法制觀念截然不同。

 

除此以外,美國有何想法?他們害怕中國擁有足夠力量時,將在東南亞和大東亞地區產生大規模影響,把美國踢出局。當中國的力量足夠強大時,將單方面伺機改變全球秩序規範。除了以上這些,美中關係還算融洽,沒什麼實質問題。挑戰在於那些根深蒂固的感受,那些根深蒂固的情緒及思考模式,中國人稱之為「思維」,即思考方式。我們如何打造兩國共同未來的基礎?我僅提出一個觀點:我們可以基於建設性的現實主義框架達成共同目標。這是什麼意思?以務實態度面對意見分歧,別讓任何分歧引發戰爭或衝突,直到我們具備解決這些問題的外交手段,以建設性態度處理兩國之間的雙邊、區域及全球問題,這將造福所有人類。在亞洲成立能促進合作的區域性機構,一個亞太共同體,對全球性事務則採取進一步行動,就像你們去年底展開的行動,攜手對抗全球氣候變化,而非針鋒相對。當然,前提是你們必須擁有共同機制及政治意圖才能達成以上目標。

 

這都是可以做到的事,但問題是,這一切能單獨實現嗎?理智告訴我們必須這麼做,但我們的心呢?我在澳洲國內對這個問題有些許體驗:如何使兩個民族團結在一起,基本上他們過去沒有太多共同點。當時我向澳洲原住民道歉,這對澳洲政府、澳洲國會、澳洲人民來說是算總帳的日子。在澳洲原住民經歷200年肆無忌憚的凌虐之後,是我們白人道歉的時候了。重要的是,我記得當澳洲原住民前來聆聽這個道歉時,我凝視他們的臉。這是相當特別的經歷,例如年長女性告訴我,她們五歲時硬生生從父母身邊被帶走的故事。像這位女士,對我來說相當震撼的體驗是,當原住民長者進入國會大廈時,我擁抱並親吻他們,一位女性對我說,這是她此生第一次被白種人親吻。她當時已年過70,這是個悲傷的故事。然後我記得有一家人對我說:「你知道嗎?我們為了這件事從北方一路開車來到坎培拉,一路開過鄉下地區,接受道歉後,在回程路上停在一間咖啡館買奶昔。」他們安靜地、試探地、小心翼翼地走進咖啡館,有點不安,我想你們知道我在說什麼。但道歉會之後發生了什麼事?咖啡館裡每個人,每個白種人都起立鼓掌。這些澳洲人的心裡產生了某種變化。白種人,我們的原住民同胞,我們尚未完全解決所有問題,但我告訴你們,這是新的開始。因為我們不僅用理智思考,也用心去感受。

 

因此如何總結今晚所提出的大問題:美中關係未來將如何發展?理智告訴我們有前進的道路,理智告訴我們其中存在政策框架、共同語言和機制,可透過例行高峰會做這些事,改善現況。但我們的心也必須尋找途徑,重新想像美中關係的可能性,以及未來中國參與全球事務的可能性。有時候,夥伴們,我們只需要有跨出第一步的信心,不需要太清楚會在哪裡著陸。在中國,他們正談論著中國夢;在美國,我們早已熟悉「美國夢」這個詞。我認為對全世界來說時機已到,我們可以思考一些或許能稱之為「人類夢」的東西。人類夢,因為如果我們這麼做,我們或許可以改變看待彼此的方式。人類夢,這是我給美國的挑戰,這是我給中國的挑戰,這是我給所有人的挑戰。但我認為只要有意願、有想像力,我們就能實現由和平與共榮所構築的未來,不會再次重蹈戰爭的悲劇。謝謝各位。(掌聲)

 

Chris Anderson:十分感謝你的演講,似乎你本身也參與其中,你以某種獨特的地位向雙方提出建議。

 

陸克文:我們澳洲人最擅長的就是舉辦酒會,你讓人們共聚一堂,提出這樣那樣的建議,然後我們把酒言歡。但不僅如此,對身為美中兩大國的朋友的人來說,你可以有所作為,你可以做出實際貢獻。對在場所有優秀人士來說,下次你遇見來自中國的人,不妨坐下來聊聊天,看看能否得知他們的來歷及想法。我對所有有機會看見這場TED演講的中國人所下的挑戰是:同樣這麼做。只要雙方都希望改變,世界就真的能做出重大改變,我們這些處於中間的人也能做出一些小貢獻。

 

CA:凱文,加油,我的朋友,謝謝。

 

陸克文:謝謝,謝謝大家。(掌聲)

 

以下為系統擷取之英文原文

About this Talk

The former prime minister of Australia, Kevin Rudd is also a longtime student of China, with a unique vantage point to watch its power rise in the past few decades. He asks whether the growing ambition of China will inevitably lead to conflict with other major powers — and suggests another narrative.

About the Speaker

While studying future alternatives for China’s global relations, former Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd has come to an ominous conclusion: conflict is looming. Full bio

Transcript

G'day, my name's Kevin. I'm from Australia. I'm here to help. (Laughter)

Tonight, I want to talk about a tale of two cities. One of those cities is called Washington, and the other is called Beijing. Because how these two capitals shape their future and the future of the United States and the future of China doesn't just affect those two countries, it affects all of us in ways, perhaps, we've never thought of: the air we breathe, the water we drink, the fish we eat, the quality of our oceans, the languages we speak in the future, the jobs we have, the political systems we choose, and, of course, the great questions of war and peace.

You see that bloke? He's French. His name is Napoleon. A couple of hundred years ago, he made this extraordinary projection: "China is a sleeping lion, and when she awakes, the world will shake." Napoleon got a few things wrong; he got this one absolutely right. Because China is today not just woken up, China has stood up and China is on the march, and the question for us all is where will China go and how do we engage this giant of the 21st century?

You start looking at the numbers, they start to confront you in a big way. It's projected that China will become, by whichever measure -- PPP, market exchange rates -- the largest economy in the world over the course of the decade ahead. They're already the largest trading nation, already the largest exporting nation, already the largest manufacturing nation, and they're also the biggest emitters of carbon in the world. America comes second.

So if China does become the world's largest economy, think about this: It'll be the first time since this guy was on the throne of England -- George III, not a good friend of Napoleon's -- that in the world we will have as the largest economy a non-English speaking country, a non-Western country, a non-liberal democratic country. And if you don't think that's going to affect the way in which the world happens in the future, then personally, I think you've been smoking something, and it doesn't mean you're from Colorado.

So in short, the question we have tonight is, how do we understand this mega-change, which I believe to be the biggest change for the first half of the 21st century? It'll affect so many things. It will go to the absolute core. It's happening quietly. It's happening persistently. It's happening in some senses under the radar, as we are all preoccupied with what's going in Ukraine, what's going on in the Middle East, what's going on with ISIS, what's going on with ISIL, what's happening with the future of our economies. This is a slow and quiet revolution. And with a mega-change comes also a mega-challenge, and the mega-challenge is this: Can these two great countries, China and the United States -- China, the Middle Kingdom, and the United States, Měiguó -- which in Chinese, by the way, means "the beautiful country." Think about that -- that's the name that China has given this country for more than a hundred years. Whether these two great civilizations, these two great countries, can in fact carve out a common future for themselves and for the world? In short, can we carve out a future which is peaceful and mutually prosperous, or are we looking at a great challenge of war or peace? And I have 15 minutes to work through war or peace, which is a little less time than they gave this guy to write a book called "War and Peace."

People ask me, why is it that a kid growing up in rural Australia got interested in learning Chinese? Well, there are two reasons for that. Here's the first of them. That's Betsy the cow. Now, Betsy the cow was one of a herd of dairy cattle that I grew up with on a farm in rural Australia. See those hands there? These are not built for farming. So very early on, I discovered that in fact, working in a farm was not designed for me, and China was a very safe remove from any career in Australian farm life.

Here's the second reason. That's my mom. Anyone here ever listen to what their mom told them to do? Everyone ever do what their mom told them to do? I rarely did, but what my mom said to me was, one day, she handed me a newspaper, a headline which said, here we have a huge change. And that change is China entering the United Nations. 1971, I had just turned 14 years of age, and she handed me this headline. And she said, "Understand this, learn this, because it's going to affect your future."

So being a very good student of history, I decided that the best thing for me to do was, in fact, to go off and learn Chinese. The great thing about learning Chinese is that your Chinese teacher gives you a new name. And so they gave me this name: Kè, which means to overcome or to conquer, and Wén, and that's the character for literature or the arts. Kè Wén, Conqueror of the Classics. Any of you guys called "Kevin"? It's a major lift from being called Kevin to be called Conqueror of the Classics. (Laughter) I've been called Kevin all my life. Have you been called Kevin all your life? Would you prefer to be called Conqueror of the Classics?

And so I went off after that and joined the Australian Foreign Service, but here is where pride -- before pride, there always comes a fall. So there I am in the embassy in Beijing, off to the Great Hall of the People with our ambassador, who had asked me to interpret for his first meeting in the Great Hall of the People. And so there was I. If you've been to a Chinese meeting, it's a giant horseshoe. At the head of the horsehoe are the really serious pooh-bahs, and down the end of the horseshoe are the not-so-serious pooh-bahs, the junior woodchucks like me. And so the ambassador began with this inelegant phrase. He said, "China and Australia are currently enjoying a relationship of unprecedented closeness." And I thought to myself, "That sounds clumsy. That sounds odd. I will improve it." Note to file: Never do that. It needed to be a little more elegant, a little more classical, so I rendered it as follows. [In Chinese]

There was a big pause on the other side of the room. You could see the giant pooh-bahs at the head of the horseshoe, the blood visibly draining from their faces, and the junior woodchucks at the other end of the horseshoe engaged in peals of unrestrained laughter. Because when I rendered his sentence, "Australia and China are enjoying a relationship of unprecedented closeness," in fact, what I said was that Australia and China were now experiencing fantastic orgasm. (Laughter)

That was the last time I was asked to interpret. But in that little story, there's a wisdom, which is, as soon as you think you know something about this extraordinary civilization of 5,000 years of continuing history, there's always something new to learn.

History is against us when it comes to the U.S. and China forging a common future together. This guy up here? He's not Chinese and he's not American. He's Greek. His name's Thucydides. He wrote the history of the Peloponnesian Wars. And he made this extraordinary observation about Athens and Sparta. "It was the rise of Athens and the fear that this inspired in Sparta that made war inevitable." And hence, a whole literature about something called the Thucydides Trap.

This guy here? He's not American and he's not Greek. He's Chinese. His name is Sun Tzu. He wrote "The Art of War," and if you see his statement underneath, it's along these lines: "Attack him where he is unprepared, appear where you are not expected." Not looking good so far for China and the United States.

This guy is an American. His name's Graham Allison. In fact, he's a teacher at the Kennedy School over there in Boston. He's working on a single project at the moment, which is, does the Thucydides Trap about the inevitably of war between rising powers and established great powers apply to the future of China-U.S. relations? It's a core question. And what Graham has done is explore 15 cases in history since the 1500s to establish what the precedents are. And in 11 out of 15 of them, let me tell you, they've ended in catastrophic war.

You may say, "But Kevin -- or Conqueror of the Classics -- that was the past. We live now in a world of interdependence and globalization. It could never happen again." Guess what? The economic historians tell us that in fact, the time which we reached the greatest point of economic integration and globalization was in 1914, just before that happened, World War I, a sobering reflection from history.

So if we are engaged in this great question of how China thinks, feels, and positions itself towards the United States, and the reverse, how do we get to the baseline of how these two countries and civilizations can possibly work together?

Let me first go to, in fact, China's views of the U.S. and the rest of the West. Number one: China feels as if it's been humiliated at the hands of the West through a hundred years of history, beginning with the Opium Wars. When after that, the Western powers carved China up into little pieces, so that by the time it got to the '20s and '30s, signs like this one appeared on the streets of Shanghai. ["No dogs and Chinese allowed"] How would you feel if you were Chinese, in your own country, if you saw that sign appear? China also believes and feels as if, in the events of 1919, at the Peace Conference in Paris, when Germany's colonies were given back to all sorts of countries around in the world, what about German colonies in China? They were, in fact, given to Japan. When Japan then invaded China in the 1930s the world looked away and was indifferent to what would happen to China. And then, on top of that, the Chinese to this day believe that the United States and the West do not accept the legitimacy of their political system because it's so radically different from those of us who come from liberal democracies, and believe that the United States to this day is seeking to undermine their political system. China also believes that it is being contained by U.S. allies and by those with strategic partnerships with the U.S. right around its periphery. And beyond all that, the Chinese have this feeling in their heart of hearts and in their gut of guts that those of us in the collective West are just too damned arrogant. That is, we don't recognize the problems in our own system, in our politics and our economics, and are very quick to point the finger elsewhere, and believe that, in fact, we in the collective West are guilty of a great bunch of hypocrisy.

Of course, in international relations, it's not just the sound of one hand clapping. There's another country too, and that's called the U.S. So how does the U.S. respond to all of the above? The U.S. has a response to each of those. On the question of is the U.S. containing China, they say, "No, look at the history of the Soviet Union. That was containment." Instead, what we have done in the U.S. and the West is welcome China into the global economy, and on top of that, welcome them into the World Trade Organization. The U.S. and the West say China cheats on the question of intellectual property rights, and through cyberattacks on U.S. and global firms. Furthermore, the United States says that the Chinese political system is fundamentally wrong because it's at such fundamental variance to the human rights, democracy, and rule of law that we enjoy in the U.S. and the collective West. And on top of all the above, what does the United States say? That they fear that China will, when it has sufficient power, establish a sphere of influence in Southeast Asia and wider East Asia, boot the United States out, and in time, when it's powerful enough, unilaterally seek to change the rules of the global order.

So apart from all of that, it's just fine and dandy, the U.S.-China relationship. No real problems there. The challenge, though, is given those deep-rooted feelings, those deep-rooted emotions and thought patterns, what the Chinese call "Sīwéi," ways of thinking, how can we craft a basis for a common future between these two?

I argue simply this: We can do it on the basis on a framework of constructive realism for a common purpose. What do I mean by that? Be realistic about the things that we disagree on, and a management approach that doesn't enable any one of those differences to break into war or conflict until we've acquired the diplomatic skills to solve them. Be constructive in areas of the bilateral, regional and global engagement between the two, which will make a difference for all of humankind. Build a regional institution capable of cooperation in Asia, an Asia-Pacific community. And worldwide, act further, like you've begun to do at the end of last year by striking out against climate change with hands joined together rather than fists apart.

Of course, all that happens if you've got a common mechanism and political will to achieve the above. These things are deliverable. But the question is, are they deliverable alone? This is what our head tells us we need to do, but what about our heart?

I have a little experience in the question back home of how you try to bring together two peoples who, frankly, haven't had a whole lot in common in the past. And that's when I apologized to Australia's indigenous peoples. This was a day of reckoning in the Australian government, the Australian parliament, and for the Australian people. After 200 years of unbridled abuse towards the first Australians, it was high time that we white folks said we were sorry.

The important thing -- (Applause)

The important thing that I remember is staring in the faces of all those from Aboriginal Australia as they came to listen to this apology. It was extraordinary to see, for example, old women telling me the stories of when they were five years old and literally ripped away from their parents, like this lady here. It was extraordinary for me to then be able to embrace and to kiss Aboriginal elders as they came into the parliament building, and one woman said to me, it's the first time a white fella had ever kissed her in her life, and she was over 70. That's a terrible story.

And then I remember this family saying to me, "You know, we drove all the way from the far North down to Canberra to come to this thing, drove our way through redneck country. On the way back, stopped at a cafe after the apology for a milkshake." And they walked into this cafe quietly, tentatively, gingerly, a little anxious. I think you know what I'm talking about. But the day after the apology, what happened? Everyone in that cafe, every one of the white folks, stood up and applauded. Something had happened in the hearts of these people in Australia. The white folks, our Aboriginal brothers and sisters, and we haven't solved all these problems together, but let me tell you, there was a new beginning because we had gone not just to the head, we'd gone also to the heart.

So where does that conclude in terms of the great question that we've been asked to address this evening, which is the future of U.S.-China relations? The head says there's a way forward. The head says there is a policy framework, there's a common narrative, there's a mechanism through regular summitry to do these things and to make them better. But the heart must also find a way to reimagine the possibilities of the America-China relationship, and the possibilities of China's future engagement in the world. Sometimes, folks, we just need to take a leap of faith not quite knowing where we might land.

In China, they now talk about the Chinese Dream. In America, we're all familiar with the term "the American Dream." I think it's time, across the world, that we're able to think also of something we might also call a dream for all humankind. Because if we do that, we might just change the way that we think about each other.

[In Chinese]

That's my challenge to America. That's my challenge to China. That's my challenge to all of us, but I think where there's a will and where there is imagination we can turn this into a future driven by peace and prosperity and not once again repeat the tragedies of war.

I thank you.

(Applause)

Chris Anderson: Thanks so much for that. Thanks so much for that. It feels like you yourself have a role to play in this bridging. You, in a way, are uniquely placed to speak to both sides.

Kevin Rudd: Well, what we Australians do best is organize the drinks, so you get them together in one room, and we suggest this and suggest that, then we go and get the drinks. But no, look, for all of us who are friends of these two great countries, America and China, you can do something. You can make a practical contribution, and for all you good folks here, next time you meet someone from China, sit down and have a conversation. See what you can find out about where they come from and what they think, and my challenge for all the Chinese folks who are going to watch this TED Talk at some time is do the same. Two of us seeking to change the world can actually make a huge difference. Those of us up the middle, we can make a small contribution.

CA: Kevin, all power to you, my friend. Thank you.

KR: Thank you. Thank you, folks.

(Applause)


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