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本頁翻譯進度

燈號說明

審定:無
翻譯:吳逸萱(簡介並寄信)
編輯:李詩健(簡介並寄信)

以下一系列的問題將可以幫助學生抓到每一堂課的重點,更重要的是,以斜體字表示的問題皆與現在的時事相關。如果我們不能從以前發生過的事學到什麼,並應用於今天的問題上的話,那學習也沒有什麼用。這是Rigobon教授想要的課堂討論方式。
The set of questions below will help students focus on the important points in each of the cases. More importantly, the questions in italics are related to current events. It does not make any sense to study what has happened in the past if we cannot learn something from it, and apply it to today's problems. This is the way Prof. Rigobon wants to set up the class discussions.
課程單元 學習問題
經濟管理的基本工具
Basic Tools of Economic Management
1 導論
Overview
2 1923年的德國過度通貨膨脹
The German Hyperinflation of 1923


當德國於第一次世界大戰戰敗,威廉二世把政權交給民主的威瑪共合國。第一篇文章(Johj Rodes著)描寫了德國的政治情勢以及同盟國要求的戰敗國賠償。第二、三、及第四篇文章(Stopler, Ringer, and Bresciani-Turroni著)描寫了過度通膨的問題,而第五篇文章描述其央行總裁對於德國央行決策的解釋。最後一篇文章則是Stopler對於1923年11月的穩定的解釋。大部分的相關資料都可以從最後的附錄找到。
As Germany lost World War I, the empire of William II gave way to the democratic Weimar Republic. The first reading (by Johj Rodes) describes the political situation in Germany and the reparations demanded by Allies. The second, third, and fourth readings (by Stopler, Ringer, and Bresciani-Turroni) describe the hyperinflation, while the fifth reading gives central bank president's explanation for the Bundesbank's actions. The final reading gives Stopler's description of the stabilization of November 1923. Much of the information about the episode can be found in the exhibits at the end.
德國的過度通膨是怎麼引起的?
What caused the German Hyperinflation?

德國過度通膨的結果?
What were the consequences of the German Hyperinflation?

你會怎麼建議德國政府降低1923年11月的通膨?
How would you advise the German government to reduce the country's inflation in November 1923?
3 大蕭條: 原因及衝擊
The Great Depression: Causes and Impact


本堂課的目標是要了解當經濟體處於衰退時,是什麼原因造成的以及如何做才能走出衰退。這個案例討論了最嚴重的衰退: 與通縮相關的衰退
Our objective in this session is to understand when an economy is in a recession, why it is, and what to do to get it out of it. This case discusses one of the most difficult recessions we know: those that are associated with deflation.

財政乘數-幼兒照顧互助會的秘訣
Fiscal Multiplier - The mystery of the babysitting cooperative
(英文PDF)、 (英文DOC)


通貨緊縮的惡性循環-大蕭條
The Disinflation Spiral - The great depression
(英文PDF)、 (英文DOC)
大蕭條是怎麼引起的,做錯了什麼事,如何走出衰退?
What were the causes of the Great Depression, what were the mistakes, how did they get out of it?

今天美國該怎麼做(走出衰退)?
What would you do, today, in the U.S. (to get out of the recession)?
4 ISLM

ISLM模型的摘要(Mundell-Fleming模型)
Simple notes on the ISLM model (the Mundell-Fleming model)
(英文PDF)、 (英文DOC)


雷根的計畫
The Reagan Plan


1981年,隆納. 雷根剛上任即面對一連串難以解決的問題。這個案例讓我們得以分析雷根的計畫,特別是他的政策衡量底下的假設。
In 1981, Ronald Reagan is a new President confronted with a set of problems that seem intractable. The case allows for an analysis of Reagan's program, and especially the assumptions that underlie his policy measures.
財政及貨幣政策如何運作?
How does fiscal and monetary policy work?

評估1981年雷根面臨的情況
Evaluate the situation facing Reagan in 1981.

理論上雷根的計畫應該會發揮什麼效用?
How was Reagan's strategy supposed to work in theory?

它有描述引起美國經濟問題的原因嗎?
Does it address the causes of the U.S. economic problems?

總統在他的演講中有哪些假設(經濟、社會、政治和國際)? 這些假設是有根據的嗎?
What assumptions (economic, social, political and international) did the President make in his speech? Are they valid?
發展策略
Development Strategies
5 日本
Japan


50年來,日本在世界上的經濟表現相當令人印象深刻,這個個案描寫了日本如何達到這樣的高成長。
For more than 50 years, Japan had one of the most impressive performances in the world. This case describes hoe Japan achieved the high rates of growth.
日本採取了什麼樣的策略?
What was the strategy Japan followed?

什麼造成他們的失敗?
What failed them?

在今天是可行的嗎?
Is it feasible today?
6 新加坡
Singapore


25年來,新加坡達到了空前的實際經濟成長。然而,在1990年代初期,因為新的競爭壓力、社會延革、和新的領袖,這個島國先前的策略收益明顯的減少。
For more than 25 years, Singapore has achieved virtually unprecedented levels of real economic growth. In the early 1990's, however, the island nation is faced with apparent diminishing returns to its previous strategy, with new competitive pressures, with changing social issues, and new leadership.
你如何解釋新加坡從1965年來的表現? 為什麼其國民所得成長比大部分發展中國家都要快?
How do you explain Singapore's performance since 1965? Why has GNP growth been faster than most developing countries?

投資與儲蓄在新加坡的發展中扮演了扮演了什麼角色?
What is the role of saving and investment is Singapore's development?

生產力成長是怎麼達到的? 而生產力成長對經濟又有什麼貢獻?
How has productivity growth been attained and how has it contributed to the economy?

1992年8月,新加坡政府應該改變他的政策嗎?
In August 1992, should the Singaporean government be changing its strategy?

東南亞金融危機是可以預期的嗎?
Was the SEA crises predictable?
7 智利: 拉丁美洲之虎
Chile: The Latin American Tiger?


智利很明顯的處在在不對的大陸了,但是他20年前並非處於現在的情況。讓智利如此卓越的成長的源頭是什麼?
Chile is clearly in the wrong continent. But it wasn't like the current situation 20 years ago. What are the sources of Chile's incredible performance?
智利的成長政策是什麼?
What is Chile's strategy for growth?

為什麼停止了?
Why it has stopped?

智利下一步可以怎麼做?
What can Chile do next?

和美國的自由貿易協定對智利有幫助嗎?
Would a free trade agreement with the U.S. help?
新興市場的金融風暴
Emerging Market Crises
8 1994-1995墨西哥披索金融風暴
The 1994-95 Mexican Peso Crisis


1980年代晚期de la Madrid和Salinas的政策被當作是穩定及改革的典範,然而,在Salina的任期最後,Rudiger Dornbusch告訴墨西哥政府披索需要貶值。而1994年的貶值結果就是一場混亂。
By the late 1980's the policies of de la Madrid and Salinas were widely regarded as showcases of stabilization and reform. However, by the end of Salinas' term, Rudiger Dornbusch tells the Mexican government that the Peso must be devalued. A devaluation at the end of 1994 results in chaos.
1994年披索被高估了嗎? 為什麼或為什麼不?
Is the peso overvalued in 1994? Why or why not?

是什麼引起1995年的匯率風暴?
What caused the exchange rate crisis of 1995?

在風暴的時候,美國借錢給墨西哥是對的嗎?
Was the United States right in lending to Mexico during the crisis?
9 阿根廷梅廉及其民粹風格
Menem and the Populist Tradition in Argentina


阿根廷不要為我哭泣
披索真的很差,失業率、財政問題、總統的失敗、現在我們已經沉淪
(你可以聽到背景音樂嗎?)
Don't cry for me Argentina.
The peso... really sucks.
The unemployment,
the fiscal problems
Presidents failing
Now we've submerging.
(Can you hear the music on the background?)
是什麼引起阿根廷的問題?
What caused the Argentinean problems?

可以做些什麼?
What can be done?

貨幣發行局是一個好的選擇嗎?
Was the currency board a good option?

美元化怎麼樣?
What about dollarization?

宣示成為美國的屬地怎麼樣?
What about declaring yourself a colony of U.S.?
10 BBNN模型的摘路及評論
BBNN Notes and Review


BBNN模型
The BBNN model
(英文PDF)、 (英文DOC)
11 亞洲金融風暴
The Asian Crises


1997年終,亞洲老虎是否明顯的做錯了? 早在風暴之前,許多經濟學家就已經預期到了,但是時間上是否都錯了? 許多預言在事後印證是智言,但是很少被真正了解。
By the end of 1997, it was clear that the Asians tigers did something wrong, or not? Well before the crises several economists predicted them, but their timing was clearly wrong, or not? A lot has been said using the obvious wisdom after fact, but really little has been fully understood.
金融風暴的起因?What were the reasons behind the financial crises?


自我驗證或是基本面?
Self-fulfilling or Fundamentals?

可以從這些事件上學到什麼?
What can be learned from them?
金融風暴及其蔓延
Financial Crises and Contagion
12 馬來西亞
Malaysia


1998年馬來西亞做了金融市場成員勸他們不要做的事,但是他們存活下來了, 為什麼?
Malaysia in 1998 did exactly what every member of the financial markets was advising them NOT to do. They survived, how?
資本控制的成本和利益在哪?
What are the cost and benefits of capital controls?

什麼時候運用?
When should they be used?

國際貨幣基金組織IMF和世界銀行WB的角色是什麼?
What is the role of the IMF and the WB?

馬來西亞的政策怎麼樣呢? 這些政策是真的不好或只是宣傳的不好?
What about their policies? Are they really bad or it is just bad publicity?
13 期中考
Midterm Exam
轉型中的經濟體及非洲
Transition Economies and Africa
14 俄羅斯 1994年
Russia - 1994


1993年12月12日,俄羅斯人民投下了俄羅斯史上的第一次多政黨選舉。這場選舉是針對葉爾辛的改革政策的公民投票,並通過葉爾辛的新憲法,然而,國會選舉的多數選民並不支持經濟自由化的提倡,反而選擇了較偏激的政黨和共產黨。葉爾辛選擇的是對的經濟和政治改革嗎? 如果以不一樣的順序實施這些政策,是否將可能更有效的轉型為市場經濟?
On December 12, 1993, the Russian people cast their votes in the first open multiparty election in Russian history. The election was a referendum on Yeltsin's reform strategy. Voters approved Yeltsin's new constitution. However, a majority of the electorate did not support advocates of economic liberalization in the parliamentary elections, choosing instead fringe parties and Communists. Had Yeltsin chosen the right economic and political reforms? Would implementing these policies in a different sequence have allowed for a more effective transition to a market economy?
戈巴契夫是怎麼失勢的?
Why did Gorbachev lose power?

1994年1月葉爾辛的改革政策出了什麼事? 為什麼?
What happened to Yeltsin's reform strategy by January 1994? Why?

已開發國家及國際貨幣基金組織應該在俄羅斯的經濟改革中扮演什麼樣的角色?
What role should developed countries and the IMF play in Russian economic reform?

葉爾辛的憲政改革足以確保俄羅斯未來的成長嗎? 你會建議其他的方式嗎?
Are Yeltsin's constitutional reforms enough to assure future Russian growth? Are there other approaches you would suggest?

債權違約之後,俄羅斯下一步該怎麼做?
After the debt default, what are the next steps Russia should take?

我們可以解釋俄羅斯近期在經濟上的成功嗎?
Can we explain the economic success Russia has had, recently?
15 中國: 面對21世紀
China: Facing the 21st Century


不容置疑的,中國最近成為亞洲最活絡的勢力,或許也可說是全球最活絡的勢力,而且,如果中國繼續順著現在的軌道,其成長必然會改變亞洲的面貌。中國怎麼辦到的? 中國將往哪裡前進?
China is without doubt currently the most dynamic force in Asia; it may be the most dynamic force in the world. Moreover, if China continues along its present trajectory, its growth will inevitably change the face of Asia. How did China do this? Where is China heading?
中國發生什麼事? 中國怎麼辦到的?
What is happening in China? How did China do this?

1993年朱鎔基面臨了什麼問題? 他有什麼選擇?
What are the problems facing Zhu in 1993? What are his options?

中國的成長對其他亞洲國家有什麼衝擊?
What is the impact of China's growth on other Asian countries?

下一步怎麼做? 他們的問題是什麼?
What is the next step? What are their problems?
16 烏干達與華盛頓共識
Uganda and the Washington Consensus


烏干達是非洲最活躍的國家之一,這是由於前10年重要的結構及市場改革。然而,今天外債的嚴重問題及疲弱的國內社會指標威脅著持續改革的過程。可以做什麼?已施行的政策出了什麼差錯,忽略了某些方面嗎?如果是這樣,那些錯誤是什麼?
Uganda is one of the most dynamic countries in Africa. This has been the result of important structural and market oriented reforms during the last decade. Today, however, important problems of external debt, as well as weak domestic social indicators, threaten the continuation of the process of reform. What can be done? Were there mistakes in the policies implemented that left some aspects behind? If so, what were those mistakes?
你對當今情勢的診斷是什麼?
What is your diagnostic of the current situation?

他們怎麼辦到的?
How did they get there?

這個經濟體面臨了什麼挑戰?
What are the challenges the economy is facing?

你會怎麼做?
What would you do?

從這三個案例中,我們看到了不同路線的改革,如果你可以重來,你改革的順序會是怎麼樣?
In these three cases we saw different paths of reform, what would be your sequence of reforms if you have to start all over again?
貿易議題
Trade Issues
17 波音公司跟空中巴士
Boeing Versus Airbus


傳統的經濟學理論建議自由貿易是最好的策略,然而,大部分的國家都有保護政策。這個個案對於引導學生到貿易爭議的議題是個相當重要的個案: 飛行器產業
Classical economic theory suggests that free trade is the best strategy. However, most countries use protection. This case introduces the students to the issues on trade disputes by looking at a very important case: the aircraft industry.
國內政策的角色是什麼? 它如何與貿易相互作用?
What is the role of domestic policy and how it interacts with trade?

這能合理化解釋為什麼國家要如此保護?
Does this rationalize why countries protect so much?
18 全球化的爭論
The Debate on Globalization


你最近有看過示威運動嗎?不管是人們抱怨紅襪隊或是跟這有關的議題。
Have you seen a demonstration lately? Probably it was either people complaining about the Red Sox or it was related to this topic.

標題通常是:
貧窮的國家被惡勢力的跨國公司剝削
貧窮的國家被惡勢力的國際貨幣基金和世界銀行剝削
貧窮的國家被惡勢力的環保論者剝削
The argument always reads as:
Poor countries are exploited by the powerful-evil-driven multinationals.
Poor countries are exploited by the powerful-evil-driven IMF and WB.
Poor countries are exploited by the powerful-evil-driven environmentalists.
Rich countries are too.

富有的國家太有競爭優勢-Ricardian模型
Comparative Advantages - Ricardian Model
(英文PDF)、 (英文DOC)
美國本土勞工因外國廉價勞工而受傷害嗎?
Are the workers in U.S. hurt by foreign cheap labor?

為什麼會變成這樣?
Why is this the case?

我們應該做些什麼嗎?
Should we do something about it?
已發展的經濟體的挑戰
Challenges of the Developed Economies
19 法國的失業率
Unemployment in France


雖然在1975年以前法國的失業率很低,自從1985之後法國的失業率就非常高。法國政府對於這樣高失業率的反應普遍被當成主要議題。
Whereas unemployment in France was very low before 1975, it has been extremely high since 1985. The government's response to this high level of unemployment is widely regarded as the principle issue.
為什麼法國雙位數的失業率是個重大的問題?
Why is double-digit unemployment of such great concern in France?

引起法國失業率的主要原因是什麼?
What are the primary causes of French unemployment?

Chirac解決這問題的最好選擇是什麼?
What are Chirac's best options for dealing with the problem?

歐洲的前景怎麼樣?
What are the prospects in Europe?
20 歐洲貨幣聯盟
European Monetary Union

現在我們只有一個貨幣,但是誠實的說,它的表現並不如預期。歐元並不像有些人所預期的那麼棒。
Now we have a single currency. But to be honest, it hasn't performed as expected. The Euro is no near the fantastic currency some have predicted.
歐元還有任何希望嗎?
Does the Euro have any hope at all?

加入這個聯盟是個錯誤嗎?
Was it a mistake to join?

納入義大利是個錯誤嗎? 或許這是貨幣表現不好的原因(還是應該怪罪於荷蘭)?
Was it a mistake to accept the Italians, maybe that's why the currency is not performing (or are the Netherlands the ones to be blamed)?
21 社會安全改革
Social Security Reform


這個個案呈現了社會安全未來會面臨的挑戰
This case presents the challenges that social security will face in the future.
這個問題的來源是什麼?
What is the source of the problem?

可以做些什麼?
What can be done?

已發展的經濟體的前景怎麼樣?
What are the prospects of developed economies?
22 日本: 自由、公平且全球化?
Japan: Free, Fair and Global?


1980年代的日本跟我們學到的”發展中的國家”大不相同。新的日本是個富有的國家,擁有空前的經常帳盈餘,以及很高的每人國民所得,然而,國民所得成長率下滑且某些觀察著覺得日本所採用的經濟策略已經不再適用。
The Japan of the 1980's differs dramatically from the "developmental state" that we have studied. The new Japan is a rich country with unprecedented current account surpluses, and a very high level of GDP per capita. However, GDP growth rates have declined and some observers feel that the economic strategy used by Japan is no longer appropriate.
日本1990年代的問題是週期性的還是結構性的? 這是永遠的還是只是曇花一現?
Are Japan's problems in the 1990's cyclical or structural? Is this permanent or transitory?

如果是週期性的,為什麼低產出持續了這麼久?
If they are cyclical, why does output stay so low for so long?

日本應該怎麼全然去改變政府在它這經濟體中扮演的角色?
How, if at all, should Japan change the role of government in its economy?

貨幣及財政政策在這情況下扮演什麼角色?
What is the role of monetary and fiscal policies in this context?

日本方面,我們應該怎麼做?
What can we do with Japan?

日本是否試著一天比一天變成更像一個新興市場?
Is Japan trying to become more like an emerging market everyday?
23 國際金融結構
International Financial Architecture
24 美國
The United States

美國的未來是什麼? 我們將會走出衰退嗎? 你將能夠找到工作(並且償還你的負債)嗎?
What is the future for the US? Are we going to get out of the recession? Will you be able to find employment (and pay your debts)?
25年後世界會是什麼樣子?
How will the world look 25 years from now?

美國的角色是什麼?
What is the role of the U.S.?

當中國變得跟美國一樣大(或是至少比日本大)的時候,會發生什麼事?
What will happen when China becomes as big as the U.S. (or at least bigger than Japan)?

 
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