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本頁翻譯進度

燈號說明

審定:無
翻譯:顏宇汝(簡介並寄信)、劉昭嶽(簡介並寄信) 編輯:李詩健(簡介並寄信)

作業佔學生總成績的85%, 每個作業以十分計算,其繳交日期列在下面。要交出多少東西,全憑自己去評斷,一些智慧語錄給你參考:
Assignments, which are worth 85% of a student's grade, are graded on a 10-point scale and due on the dates listed below. How much should you hand in? Use your judgment. Some words of wisdom
:
  • “請注意你寫內容的正確而不是量多” - Erasmus
    我們不會因為你寫的多而給你高分
    “Be careful that you write accurately rather than much.” - Erasmus
    We don’t give higher grades for longer write-ups.

  • “如果你想要寫出值得讓人閱讀第二次的東西,你必然會常常旋轉你的筆尖和橡皮擦” - Horace
    給自己時間去修改
    “Often must you turn your stylus to erase, if you hope to write something worth a second reading.” - Horace
    Allow yourself time for revisions.

  • “沒有經過努力寫出的文章,閱讀起來一點也不會覺得愉快” - Samuel Johnson
    評起分來也不會愉快
    “What is written without effort is in general read without pleasure.” - Samuel Johnson
    And graded without pleasure.

雖然圖表應該清楚易讀,但並不需要製做有專業水準的圖表來。請不要花時間用特殊的軟體去製作像藝術家水準的圖表,運用你的時間去思考議題並發展你的想法。如要用軟體製作圖表,只有在你覺得他能快速提升你的生產力時才使用。一個清楚手繪的圖表讓你能有時間作深入的思考。
While your graphs and diagrams should be clear and legible, it is not necessary to create professional quality graphics. Do not spend your time creating artist-quality presentation graphics using fancy software. Use your time to think about the issues and develop your ideas. Use software to create the diagrams only if it will boost your productivity. A legible handwritten diagram you had time to think about is preferable to a beautiful computer-generated diagram that took so much time to render you didn’t have time to think deeply about its content.


課程單元 作業
1 簡介及概述:目的,工具及系統動力學的概念
Introduction and Overview: Purpose, Tools and Concepts of System Dynamics
2 系統動力學的工具(第一部分):問題的定義及模型的目的
System Dynamics Tools Part 1: Problem Definition and Model Purpose
3 系統動力學的工具(第二部分):建立因果環路圖的理論
System Dynamics Tools Part 2: Building Theory with Causal Loop Diagrams
4 系統動力學的工具(第三部分):繪出系統的積存量及流量結構
System Dynamics Tools Part 3: Mapping the Stock and Flow Structure of Systems
作業#1: 問題的定義及模型概述 (PDF)
Assignment #1: Problem Definition and Model Conceptualization (PDF)

第1堂課分配的個人作業
Issued in Lecture 1 - Individual assignment

高槓桿政策的設計及評量需要一個長時間及動態觀點.分析者或管理者必需具有描述策略問題的能力,包括問題的本身的特徵及由來.時間序列必須明確而且長時間足夠去包含可能的副作用,政策的延遲反應,及其他的回應.這個作業將會開發你的能力去發展一個對於問題行為的圖型在不同的情況下所產生的參考模型.這個作業也將開發你建立因果環路圖,取得系統的回饋結構,及涉及問題行為結構的能力,應用在參考模型上.
The design and evaluation of high-leverage policies demand a long-term, dynamic perspective. The analyst or manager must be able to characterize the strategic problem, including its current symptoms and history. The time horizon should be explicit and must be long enough to include possible side effects, delayed responses to policies, and other feedbacks. This assignment develops your ability to develop a reference mode that graphically characterizes patterns of problem behavior over time in various situations. The assignment also develops your skill in constructing causal loop diagrams that capture the feedback structure of the system, and your ability to relate the structure in a causal map to the problem behavior in the reference mode.
5 系統動力學的工具(第四部分):積存量及流量結構的動力學
System Dynamics Tools Part 4: Dynamics of Stocks and Flows
6 系統動力學的工具(第五部分):連結回饋與積存量及流量結構
System Dynamics Tools Part 5: Linking Feedback with Stock and Flow Structure
作業#2: 繪出系統的積存量及流量結構(PDF)
Assignment #2: Mapping the Stock and Flow Structure of Systems (PDF)

第4堂課分配的個人作業
Issued in Lecture 4 - Individual assignment

這個作業將會讓你練習積存量及流量的結構及變動.積存量及流量是由每一個複雜系統所組成的基礎材料.在任何一個模型中,確認、繪製並瞭解系統中積存量與流量的動態網絡是瞭解有興趣事物流程的重要步驟。
This assignment will give you practice with the structure and dynamics of stocks and flows. Stocks and flows are the building blocks from which every more complex system is composed. The ability to identify, map, and understand the dynamics of the networks of stocks and flows in a system is essential to understanding the processes of interest in any modeling effort.
7 系統動力學的工具(第六部分):連結回饋與積存量及流量結構(續)
System Dynamics Tools Part 6: Linking Feedback with Stock and Flow Structure (continued)
8 成長策略(第一部份):模擬創新新產品的擴張與成長
Growth Strategies Part 1: Modeling Innovation Diffusion and the Growth of New Products
9 成長策略(第二部份):外在網絡,補充,通路依賴
Growth Strategies Part 2: Network Externalities, Complementarities, and Path Dependence
作業#3: 簡單系統的公式化模型(PDF)
Assignment #3: Formulating Models of Simple Systems (PDF)

第6堂課分配的小組作業(三人一組)
Issued in Lecture 6 - Group assignment (groups of three people)

在上個作業中你己經學習到了積存量及流量之間的關係,及集中注意力在如何使一個積存量改變而流量也跟著改變.在這個作業中你將會學習到回饋—積存量如何能影響(或是”回饋”到)流量的比率.這個作業將會讓你練習到基礎回饋系統的結構及行為.這些系統是由更複雜的系統所組成的基礎材料.這個作業也將加重你對實際操作系統動力學模擬的理解
In the last assignment you explored the relationship between stocks and flows, focusing on how a stock changes as its rates of flow change. In this assignment you explore feedback—how levels can influence (or "feed back" to) the rates. This assignment gives you practice with the structure and behavior of fundamental feedback systems. These systems are building blocks from which more complex systems are composed. The assignment also sharpens your understanding of how system dynamics simulations actually work.

10 成長策略(第三部份):模擬新醫學技術的發展
Growth Strategies Part 3: Modeling the Evolution of New Medical Technologies
11 操作,策略,以及人力資源政策問的相互影嚮:人民航空
Interactions of Operations, Strategy, and Human Resource Policy: People Express
作業#4: 系統動力學的比較分析(PDF)
Assignment #4: Competitive Analysis Using System Dynamics (PDF)

第9堂課分配的小組作業(三人一組)
Issued in Lecture 9 - Group assignment (groups of three people)

在過去的十五年,管理者,策略學者及經濟學家己經發現了正向回饋的概念.在這樣增加回復及網路外部性的前進思考下,很多的策略架構及理論現在已經承認正向回饋循環在創造成長及給予競爭優勢的重要性.遺憾地,這些架構通常是無法充份地運用在幫助管理者做策略決策.一個重要且關於這個爭議的證實就是一個重點,特別是那些叫做”新經濟”(New Economy)的公司, 在使用”GBF”(Get Big Fast)的策略中.通常,像這樣的公司(和他們的贊助者),認為大小影響競爭的優勢,卻沒有清楚的想法是怎樣的過程連結了大小與成功間的關係。最近很多運用GBF策略而失敗的公司,證明了成功運用正向回饋當作是策略優點,是需要仔細考慮這樣的回饋是存在哪一個過程。這個作業將會給你一個機會去使用你的系統動力學技能在分析競爭動力學及公式化策略.
In the past fifteen years, managers, strategy scholars and economists have discovered the notion of positive feedback. Under such headings as increasing returns and network externalities, a variety of strategic frameworks and theories now recognize the importance of positive feedback loops in creating growth and conferring competitive advantage. Unfortunately, these frameworks, while suggestive, often are not sufficiently operational to help managers make strategic decisions. An important manifestation of this difficulty is the focus, particularly among so-called "New Economy" companies, on the “GBF” (Get Big Fast) strategy. Often, such firms (and their backers) assume that size confers competitive advantage without a particularly clear idea of which processes actually link size to success. The recent failure of many companies that pursued the GBF strategies is testament to the fact that successfully exploiting positive feedback for strategic advantage requires careful consideration of where such processes exist and where they don’t. This assignment gives you the opportunity to use your system dynamics skills to analyze competitive dynamics and formulate strategy.

12 來賓演講:通用汽車(GM)的商業動力學-尼克布得,馬克佩吉(Nick Pudar, Mark Paich)
Guest Lecture: Business Dynamics at General Motors (Nick Pudar, Mark Paich)
13 管理過度成長:人民航空的教訓
Managing Hyper Growth: Lessons from People Express

15.871課程結束
End of 15.871
作業#5: 人們表達對飛行模擬裝置的管理(PDF)
Assignment #5: The People Express Management Flight Simulator (PDF)

第11堂課分課的小組作業(三人一組)
Issued in Lecture 11 - Group assignment (groups of three people)

這次的作業將會給你一個機會去應用你的系統思考技能在一個複雜的真實生活問題的企業策略上: 人民航空公司的起落.去解釋為何會發生及什麼事情可以去避免公司的死亡一是個很大的挑戰.在這個作業中,你將會經由模擬飛行管理軟體來經營你的公司---這個軟體背後的一個動力系統模型,經由一個實際的介面,你將會在每一季決定你的策略及操作決定。然後你將利用你的經驗去跑你自己的人民航空模型,對於這個動力現象,用回饋結構反應去發展一個概念模型.最後,你將會使用你對管理飛行模擬裝置器的概念模型及經驗去建議如何維持人民航空成功的政策.
This assignment gives you a chance to apply your systems thinking skills to a complex real life problem in corporate strategy: the rise and fall of People Express Airlines. Explaining what happened and what might have been done to prevent their demise is a challenge. In this assignment you will first ‘fly’ the company yourself through a management flight simulator—a system dynamics model embedded in a realistic interface in which you will make strategic and operational decisions quarter by quarter. You will then draw on your experience running your own People Express to develop a conceptual model of the feedback structures responsible for the dynamics. Finally, you will use your conceptual model and experience in the management flight simulator to recommend policies for the sustainable success of People Express. The assignment provides an opportunity to integrate the skills we’ve been developing all semester, and gives you an exposure to a management flight simulator as a tool for the development of systems thinking skills and for policy design.

這個作業提供一個機會去整合我們在這學期已經學過和發展過的技能,及給你一個方向去管理飛行模擬裝置器,就像一個工具對於系統思考技能及政策設計的發展.人民航空的管理飛行模擬裝置器是來自於全球性策略動力學.另一個企業管理模擬,在課堂上的那個關於B&B企業的管理的主題.提到類似成長策略及競爭的問題.相關的免費展示版本在佛里歐企業模擬(Forio Business Simulations).
The People Express Management Flight Simulator is available from Global Strategy Dynamics. Another flight simulator that is relevant to the topics treated in the course is the B & B Enterprises Management Flight Simulator, which addresses similar issues of growth strategy and competition. A free demo version is available at Forio Business Simulations.
14 系統動力學的作用: 再造高效率工業的供應鏈工程
System Dynamics in Action: Re-engineering the Supply Chain in a High-Velocity Industry
15 管理的不穩定性(第一部份): 製作及測試健全的商業程序模型
Managing Instability Part 1: Formulating and Testing Robust Models of Business Processes
16 管理的不穩定性(第二部份):補給線及供應鏈
Managing Instability Part 2: The Supply Line and Supply Chains
作業#6: 延遲的結構及行為(PDF)
Assignment #6: Structure and Behavior of Delays (PDF)

第13堂課分配的小組作業(三人一組),評分標準: 及格與不及格
Issued in Lecture 13 - Group assignment (groups of three people), graded pass-fail

延遲幾乎是所有系統媗黹坁滬垠n來源.然而,在我們的模型堙A從品質上來說,我們已經呈現了延遲在因果環路圖.在這個作業中,你會發現延遲的結構及行為,而且測試它們在一個投入範圍堛漱狨部D這個作業幫助你了解延遲的動力學以便你可以適當的使用他們在更複雜的模型堙D這個作業也發展你對於模型的公式化及分析的技能.做這個作業,你必須要讀課本第11章.
Delays are a critical source of dynamics in nearly all systems. Thus far in our modeling, however, we have represented delays in causal diagrams qualitatively. In this assignment you explore the structure and behavior of delays and test their responses to a range of inputs. The assignment helps you understand the dynamics of delays so that you can use them appropriately in more complex models. The assignment also develops your skills in model formulation and analysis. To do this assignment it is essential that you read chapter 11 in the text.

17 管理的不穩定性(第三部份):預測及回饋: 有限理性及合理的預期
Managing Instability Part 3: Forecasting and Feedback: Bounded Rationality or Rational Expectations?
18 管理的不穩定性(第四部份):商業週期: 不動產及油輪
Managing Instability Part 4: Business Cycles: Real Estate and Oil Tankers
19 來賓演講: 傑佛瑞斯特(Jay W. Forrester)
Guest Lecture: Jay W. Forrester
作業#7: 認識商業的變動: 波動的起因(PDF)
Assignment #7: Understanding Business Fluctuations: The Causes of Oscillations (PDF)

第16堂課分配的小組作業(三人一組)
Issued in Lecture 16 - Group assignment (groups of three people)

震盪及循環的現象是所有變動行為堻怳@般也是最重要的一部份.整體的經濟及很多個別產業經歷了產品,需求,員工及利益的慢性不穩定影響,再加上高管理階層的更換率.避免或者緩和這樣的產業循環搖擺是很困難的.這個作業將發展你的能力去公式化一個企業處境的動態模型及分析他們的行為.在一個製造工業堙A問題的涉及中心是產品,存貨,及員工的管理存在著慢性不穩定.你將建立一個企業的模型,有關於我們在課堂上開發及探究的振盪治癒的原因.這個作業也適合當成一個模型基礎政策分析的簡介.
Oscillations and cyclic phenomena are among the most common and important dynamic behaviors. The economy as a whole and many individual industries suffer from chronic instability in production, demand, employment, and profits, with resulting turnover of top management. Avoiding or tempering the swings of such industry cycles has proven difficult. This assignment develops your ability to formulate dynamic models of a business situation and analyze their behavior. The problem of concern centers on chronic instability in the management of production, inventories, and employment in a manufacturing firm. You will build on the model of a firm we developed in class and explore the causes of and cures for oscillations. The assignment also serves as an introduction to model-based policy analysis.
20 系統動力學的作用: 專案管理的準時及預算內的動力學
System Dynamics in Action: The Dynamics of Project Management-On Time and Under Budget
21 系統動力學的作用:環境及公共政策問題的系統動力學之應用
System Dynamics in Action: Applications of System Dynamics to Environmental and Public Policy Issues
22 系統動力學的作用: 改善半導體工作的流程
System Dynamics in Action: Process Improvement in the Semiconductor Industry
作業#8: 程序改善的動力學(PDF)
Assignment #8: The Dynamics of Process Improvement (PDF)

第19堂課分配的小組作業(三人一組)
Issued in Lecture 19 - Group assignment (groups of three people)

隨著競爭逐漸激烈,企業已經開始去尋找方法去改善他們的產品及生產程序.在搜尋更高的品質及生產力的過程中,企業已經決定而且發展許多不同的改善方法,包括SQC, TQM, JIT, TPM, TBC, MAN, BPR, 6σ和很多其它的方法.有一些企業使用這些改善技術的程序,已達到非常成功的目標.但是雖然大量投資的時間,金錢及訓練,很多企業—或者大部份的企業—已經發現,努力去實現永續的改善方法的不容易的.為何這麼多品質改善計畫失敗?企業如何去設計永續的改善計畫?什麼是程序改善的動力學?在這個作業堙A模型將會提供你去發展有關的這方面的問題.
As competition has intensified, businesses have sought to improve not only their products but also their processes for producing goods or services. In the search for higher quality and productivity, firms have devised and deployed literally dozens of different improvement programs, including SQC, TQM, JIT, TPM, TBC, MAN, BPR, 6σ and many others. Some firms have achieved tremendous success with these process improvement techniques. Yet despite huge investments of time, money, and training, many firms—perhaps most—have found it difficult to realize sustained improvement from their efforts. Why do so many quality improvement programs fail? How can firms design sustainable improvement programs? What are the dynamics of process improvement? The model you will develop in this assignment will provide insight into these questions.
23 來賓演講:系統動力學的作用- 吉姆萊尼斯(Jim Lyneis)
Guest Lecture: System Dynamics in Action - Jim Lyneis
24 系統動力學的作用: 完成挑戰
System Dynamics in Action: The Implementation Challenge

結論:如何持續學習, 持續追蹤資源, 工作機會, 課程評量
Conclusion: How to Keep Learning. Follow-up Resources, Career Opportunities, Course Evaluations
作業#9: 了解成本及計劃超出產品發展專案的因素(PDF)-吉姆萊尼斯教授的演講
Assignment #9: Understanding Cost and Schedule Overrun on Product Development Projects (PDF) - courtesy of Prof. James Lyneis.

第22堂上課分配的小組作業(三人一組)
Issued in Lecture 22 - Group assignment (groups of three people)

設計及建立一個新的產品或服務企畫,不論是獨一無二的成果像是英國和法國之間的那座海底隧道,或是一般的成果像是新車的產品發展或軟體系統,幾乎都是超過他們原本的計劃表或者預算,又或者兩者都是.這樣的企劃在我們的經濟上,已經開始變成一個重要的角色.舉例來說,目前幾乎每一個新產品或服務都包含了新軟體的發展.在市場上,成功可以是依賴計劃表及預算.這個作業將建立你對於導致一個企劃成功或失敗的因素的理解.
Projects to design and build a new product or service, whether a one-of-a kind effort such as the Channel Tunnel between England and France, or more repetitive efforts such as new car product developments or software systems, are notorious for over-running their original schedule, or budget, or both. Such projects are increasingly important in our economy. For example, almost every new product or service today involves development of new software. Success in the market can depend on being on schedule and budget. This assignment builds your understanding of some of the factors driving success or failure on projects.

 
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