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本頁翻譯進度

燈號說明

審定:無
翻譯:顏宇汝(簡介並寄信)、劉昭嶽(簡介並寄信) 編輯:李詩健(簡介並寄信)

一般資訊

背景說明:15.871 和 15.874

15.871(系統動力學之簡介)是半學期(六單元)的課程.15.874(商業政策之系統動力學)是一學期(12單元)的課程.其中這兩個課程在前半學期將會一起上課,15.871在後半學期前結束,而15.874則繼續上到學期末.

教授群

這堂課將由約翰.史塔門(John Sterman)教授,布雷得.莫理斯恩(Brad Morrison)教授以及尼爾森.雷朋尼(Nelson Repening)教授指導

助教時間

助教將會在每星期的複習時間堙A討論及回答關於作業的問題

評分比重

活動 百分比
作業 85%
課程參與 15%

每一個作業滿分10分.作業遲交扣兩分.如果作業遲交超過一星期等於零分.這個評分標準將被嚴格執行

網站

我們將會把課程教材透過課程伺服器放在網路上.15.871/15.874的課程教材包含了課程大綱,作業,模擬的模型,閱讀清單,小幫手, 軟體使用以及其他有用的資訊.我們會將例如作業的提示或助教時間的改變,透過課程伺服器發送電子郵件告知.你也可以透過這個課程伺服器尋找小組作業的夥伴或是提出問題跟回答問題讓全班同學知道.


目標及範圍

為何有那麼多的企業策略會失敗?為何有那麼多企業策略會在最後結果失敗?為何有那麼多企業會遭受週期性的危機,波動的銷售額,利潤,以及士氣?為何有些企業會在其他企業處於蕭條時成長?為何那些曾經風雲一時的企業失去了他們的競爭優勢?一個企業如何確認及設計高槓桿原理的政策,以及不被未預期的副作用影響?

快速的經濟,技術,社會及環境改變激發越來越多的管理者去學習.我們必須快速的學習如何在決策堻]計及管理複雜的系統及多樣性回饋影響,長時間的延遲及非線性的回應.但是這樣的學習環境是相當困難的,因為我們不曾面臨很多重要決定的結果.在這樣的環境下,有效的學習要求方法去發展系統思考,去呈現及評價這動態的複雜性—以及管理者可應用於使組織快速學習的工具.

這個課程介紹如何應用系統動力學來模擬商業政策及策略.你將會學習到如何透過建立變動及管理績效的結構與政策來呈現一個商業組織.系統動力學提供我們去創造一個”微觀世界”(microworlds).管理飛行模擬裝置的空間及時間是可以被壓縮,被放慢及被停止的,因此,我們可以體驗一個決定在長時間所產生的副作用,有系統性地去探索新的策略,及發展我們對於複雜系統的理解.我們將發展政策設計原則,複雜的策略管理,運用於角色扮演的遊戲,模擬模型,個案研究,及管理飛行模擬裝置.系統動力學將會更著重使用在成功策略的個案研究設計及完成.我們認為系統思考的運用是促進有效的組織學習.

創造模型的主要目的是增進我們的對於一個組織它的內部結構,營運政策及那些相關的顧客,競爭對手及供應商實行方法的了解.在課堂中,將會使用一些模擬模型去探測這類的策略問題,像變動的銷售額,生產及盈餘;市場成長及不景氣;新技術的傳播;預測的運用及可信度;及商業決策製定的合理性.

學生將會學習如何去辨認以及處理,政策被干預所產生的延遲,無力,及挫敗的不預期反應及副作用的情況.學生將有機會去運用電腦軟體做相關的模型及遊戲.作業中將反映出不同設定的發展及測試電腦模擬模型.

沒有使用過電腦模型經驗的學生也可以選這堂課

只要有空位,歡迎大家來旁聽


課本及電腦軟體

課本

  1. 史特曼(John Sterman):《商業動力學:複雜世界下的系統思考及模型》(Business Dynamics:Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World).Irwin/McGraw Hill, 2000. ISBN 0-07-238915-X (Text and CD-ROM);關於教科書的資訊,請看教科書的網站,其中包含軟體的模型.
  2. 指定閱讀的講義(可從學校的影印中心取得)

講義堨]含了指定的相關文章及個案研究補充說明.必須注意關於指定閱讀的清單,因為文章及個案必須於上課前預習過.(注意:在上課前,我們會討論相關的細節).額外的指定閱讀將會不定時的發放.閱讀的清單也指出課本的哪些部分和作業有相關,必須仔細研讀,及哪些章節大概瀏覽一下即可 (注意:瀏覽不等於略過不讀).

另外,我們將會使用模型軟體.一些不錯的系統動力學模型軟體,包括iThink,from Hing Performance Systems,Powersim,from Powersim Corporation,及Vensim®, from Ventana Systems.所有的這些軟體都是被高度推薦.你或許希望學習更多關於被使用於商業界的相關軟體,及更專精的操作以增加未來相關工作的經驗及機會.因此,對於更多關於軟體的資訊,請參考工具清單.


General Information

Background: 15.871 & 15.874

15.871 (Introduction to System Dynamics) is a half semester (6 unit) course. 15.874 (System Dynamics for Business Policy) is a full semester (12 unit) course. The two courses meet concurrently during the first half of the term and are the same. In the second half of the semester, 15.874 continues.

Instructors

The course will be taught by Prof. John Sterman, Prof. Brad Morrison, and Prof. Nelson Repenning.

TA Sessions

The TAs will lead a weekly review session in which they will answer questions about assignments in progress and discuss solutions to past assignments.

Grading Emphasis

ACTIVITY PERCENTAGE
Assignments 85%
Class Participation 15%

Each assignment is graded on a 10-point scale. Two points will be forfeited for assignments handed in late. Assignments handed in more than 1 class late will receive no credit. This policy will be strictly enforced.

Web Site

We will be using a class server to post course materials online. The 15.871/15.874 area will contain the syllabus, assignments, simulation models, reading list, helpful hints, software access, and other useful information. We will use it to send emails with information such as hints for assignments, schedule changes for TA sessions, etc. You should also use it to find partners for group assignments, or to pose questions to the class as a whole.


Objectives and Scope

Why do so many business strategies fail? Why do so many others fail to produce lasting results? Why do many businesses suffer from periodic crises, fluctuating sales, earnings, and morale? Why do some firms grow while others stagnate? How do once-dominant firms lose their competitive edge? And how can a firm identify and design high-leverage policies, policies that are not thwarted by unanticipated side effects?

Accelerating economic, technological, social, and environmental change challenge managers to learn at increasing rates. And we must increasingly learn how to design and manage complex systems with multiple feedback effects, long time delays, and nonlinear responses to our decisions. Yet learning in such environments is difficult precisely because we never confront many of the consequences of our most important decisions. Effective learning in such environments requires methods to develop systems thinking, to represent and assess such dynamic complexity - and tools managers can use to accelerate learning throughout an organization.

This course introduces you to system dynamics modeling for the analysis of business policy and strategy. You will learn to visualize a business organization in terms of the structures and policies that create dynamics and regulate performance. System dynamics allows us to create 'microworlds,' management flight simulators where space and time can be compressed, slowed, and stopped so we can experience the long-term side effects of decisions, systematically explore new strategies, and develop our understanding of complex systems. We use role playing games, simulation models, case studies, and management flight simulators to develop principles of policy design for successful management of complex strategies. Case studies of successful strategy design and implementation using system dynamics will be stressed. We consider the use of systems thinking to promote effective organizational learning.

The principle purpose of modeling is to improve our understanding of the ways in which an organization's performance is related to its internal structure and operating policies as well as those of customers, competitors, and suppliers. During the course you will use several simulation models to explore such strategic issues as fluctuating sales, production and earnings; market growth and stagnation; the diffusion of new technologies; the use and reliability of forecasts; and the rationality of business decision making.

Students will learn to recognize and deal with situations where policy interventions are likely to be delayed, diluted, or defeated by unanticipated reactions and side effects. You will have a chance to use state of the art software for computer simulation and gaming. Assignments give hands-on experience in developing and testing computer simulation models in diverse settings.

No prior computer modeling experience is needed.

Listeners are welcome only if space permits.


Texts and Software

Required Text

  1. Sterman, J. Business Dynamics: Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World. Irwin/McGraw Hill, 2000. ISBN 0-07-238915-X (Text and CD-ROM); see the textbook's web site for information about the book, including software models.
  2. Reading packet (available from the campus copy center).

The packet includes selected articles and case studies required for certain sessions and supplements the book. We have noted on the readings page the days for which these articles/cases should be prepared (NOTE: before the class in which we discuss them). Additional readings will be handed out on an occasional basis. The readings page also indicates which sections of the text you should be sure to read to learn the material you will need to do the assignments, and which sections you can skim (NOTE: 'skim' ≠ 'skip').

In addition, we will be using modeling software. Several excellent packages for system dynamics simulation are available commercially, including iThink, from High Performance Systems, Powersim, from Powersim Corporation, and Vensim®, from Ventana Systems. All are highly recommended. You may wish to learn more about these packages, as all are used in the business world, and expertise in them is increasingly sought by potential employers. For more information on the software used in this course, please see the tools page.


 
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